Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
I’m fairly comfy with each my H1 2022 name and with the position of gasoline/diesel consumption and VMT as indicators of financial stress or consolation, because the case could also be.
Here’s a longer span of different indicators, to spotlight the truth that utilizing VMT, gasoline consumption or petroleum use, would counsel we have now been and stay in a recession.
Determine 1: Civilian employment from CPS (pink, proper log scale), Car Miles Traveled (tan, proper log scale), Petroleum Consumption seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing Census X13/X11 ARIMA (gentle blue, proper log scale), and Gasoline Provided s.a. by writer (inexperienced, proper log scale), all 2021M11=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Hypothetical 2022H1 recession dates shaded gentle blue. Supply: NHTSA, EIA through FRED, EIA STEO, NBER and writer’s calculations.
That is in distinction to different standard indicators, such because the Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index. I plot CFNAI MA3 over the identical time interval as Determine 1 beneath, to indicate the contrasting evolution. Notice that the CFNAI MA3 didn’t breach the contraction threshold within the hypothetical 2022H1 interval.
Determine 2: CFNAI-MA3. If in growth, coming from above and falling beneath pink line, then coming into recession. If in recession and coming from beneath and rising above gentle blue line, then coming into growth. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Hypothetical 2022H1 recession dates shaded gentle blue. Supply: Chicago Fed through FRED, NBER.
Whereas I haven’t discovered SPAM gross sales numbers over time, I did discover month-to-month RV gross sales. Notice that the primary half of 2022 (really via Might) was a bumper yr in gross sales, exceed report quantities in 2021 – for apparent causes.
Supply: Marucci (2023). Information via July 2023.
Now, if one needed to deduce incipient recession from the quickly declining RV gross sales, one might make an inexpensive argument (see my 2019 post on utilizing RV gross sales to foretell recessions). Nevertheless, I’d say that the distortions related to the pandemic make {that a} harmful proposition.
In sum: In case you nonetheless assume the 2022H1 recession name was affordable, then I’ve a bridge in NY to promote you.
Reader Steven Kopits, in response to a posting of alternative indicators, writes:
I’m fairly comfy with each my H1 2022 name and with the position of gasoline/diesel consumption and VMT as indicators of financial stress or consolation, because the case could also be.
Here’s a longer span of different indicators, to spotlight the truth that utilizing VMT, gasoline consumption or petroleum use, would counsel we have now been and stay in a recession.
Determine 1: Civilian employment from CPS (pink, proper log scale), Car Miles Traveled (tan, proper log scale), Petroleum Consumption seasonally adjusted by writer utilizing Census X13/X11 ARIMA (gentle blue, proper log scale), and Gasoline Provided s.a. by writer (inexperienced, proper log scale), all 2021M11=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Hypothetical 2022H1 recession dates shaded gentle blue. Supply: NHTSA, EIA through FRED, EIA STEO, NBER and writer’s calculations.
That is in distinction to different standard indicators, such because the Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index. I plot CFNAI MA3 over the identical time interval as Determine 1 beneath, to indicate the contrasting evolution. Notice that the CFNAI MA3 didn’t breach the contraction threshold within the hypothetical 2022H1 interval.
Determine 2: CFNAI-MA3. If in growth, coming from above and falling beneath pink line, then coming into recession. If in recession and coming from beneath and rising above gentle blue line, then coming into growth. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Hypothetical 2022H1 recession dates shaded gentle blue. Supply: Chicago Fed through FRED, NBER.
Whereas I haven’t discovered SPAM gross sales numbers over time, I did discover month-to-month RV gross sales. Notice that the primary half of 2022 (really via Might) was a bumper yr in gross sales, exceed report quantities in 2021 – for apparent causes.
Supply: Marucci (2023). Information via July 2023.
Now, if one needed to deduce incipient recession from the quickly declining RV gross sales, one might make an inexpensive argument (see my 2019 post on utilizing RV gross sales to foretell recessions). Nevertheless, I’d say that the distortions related to the pandemic make {that a} harmful proposition.
In sum: In case you nonetheless assume the 2022H1 recession name was affordable, then I’ve a bridge in NY to promote you.