The Courageous-Butters-Kelley month-to-month GDP for June is out. Right here’re progress charges of this collection in contrast towards the SPGMI (previously IHS/Markit) month-to-month GDP, and the Philadelphia Fed’s coincident index, which ought to monitor GDP.
Determine 1: Month-on-month annualized progress price of month-to-month GDP from SPGMI (blue), from Courageous-Butters-Kelley (tan), and from Philadelphia Fed coincident index (inexperienced). Supply: SPGMI (9/1), Indiana Univ through FRED (9/5), and Philadelphia Fed (8/25), and creator’s calculations.
Casual discussion of BBK right here.
The previous are backwards wanting indicators (for the month-to-month collection adopted by the NBER’s BCDC, see this 9/1 post). Even the Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Indicator for the week ending 8/26 at 1.96% is backwards wanting.
The July BBK main indicator is within the constructive vary, at 1.2. Thatb means actual GDP progress is anticipated to be 1.2 commonplace deviations above development. That is distinction to Convention Board July LEI (a mixture of economic and actual and expectations indicators) which declined in July, and has been signalling recession for months.