Nominal consumption spending surprises on the upside. Right here’s an image of the sequence the NBER BCDC follows, together with month-to-month GDP.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment, NFP (darkish blue), civilian employment (orange), industrial manufacturing (crimson), private earnings excluding transfers in Ch.2012$ (inexperienced), manufacturing and commerce gross sales in Ch.2012$ (black), consumption in Ch.2012$ (mild blue), and month-to-month GDP in Ch.2012$ (pink), GDP (blue bars), 2023Q2 is GDPNow of seven/18, all log normalized to 2021M11=0. Supply: BLS, Federal Reserve, BEA 2023Q2 advance launch by way of FRED, S&P Global/IHS Markit (nee Macroeconomic Advisers, IHS Markit) (7/3/2023 launch), and writer’s calculations.