Philip Greengard writes:
This tweet by Nate Silver during which he says that the UFOs that made information lately are “nearly positively not aliens” jogged my memory of some discussions in your weblog together with this. I assumed you had one other weblog submit about motivations of pundits round uncertainty however I can’t discover it. I’m not claiming that is any form of “gotcha,” however I assumed it was considerably attention-grabbing/revealing that Nate felt the necessity to embrace “nearly” in his prediction.
Yeah, that’s humorous. Some additional background is {that a} couple years in the past a bunch of elite journalists have been floating the concept that UFOs may really be aliens, or that we needs to be taking UFOs critically, or one thing like that. I had an change again in 2020 with a well-respected journalist who wrote, “The Navy is releasing movies of pilots watching one thing within the air that’s blowing their minds, It’s price exploring what it’s! Doubtless it’s not aliens, however I’d wish to know what it’s.”
So I feel Nate’s remark is only a reflection of the elite media bubble during which he lives. A pair different UFO-curious people who find themselves effectively related within the information media are Ezra Klein and Tyler Cowen.
One other approach to put it’s: Frequent sense and logic say that UFOs are usually not area aliens. Alternatively, it’s gotta be that hundreds of thousands of People consider it . . . aaaah, right here it’s, from Gallup:
4 in 10 People now assume some UFOs that individuals have noticed have been alien spacecraft visiting Earth from different planets or galaxies. That is up from a 3rd saying so two years in the past. Half, nevertheless, consider all such sightings will be defined by human exercise or pure phenomena, whereas a further 9% are not sure.
And, as I by no means tire of reminding you, polls discover that 30% of People consider in ghosts. OK, polls aren’t good, however irrespective of the way you slice it, a lot of folks consider in these items.
From that perspective, yeah, if 40% of People consider one thing, it’s no shock that some fraction of journalists consider it too. Perhaps not 40%, however even when it’s solely 20%, or 10%, that’s nonetheless a bunch. Sufficient in order that some is perhaps private associates of Nate, so he’ll assume, “Positive, that area aliens factor appears fairly implausible, however my associates X and Y are very cheap folks, and they consider it, so possibly there’s one thing there . . .”
All of it sounds humorous to Philip and me, however that’s simply because we’re not linked into a giant community of associates/colleagues who opinionate about such issues. Nate Silver sees that Ezra Klein and Tyler Cowen consider that UFO’s is perhaps area aliens, so . . . positive, why not no less than hedge your bets on it, proper? So I feel there’s some contagion right here, not precisely a consensus throughout the pundit class however throughout the vary of consensus opinion.
P.S. More here from Palko, with a concentrate on the NYT being conned. I feel a part of this story, as famous above, is what is perhaps referred to as the shortage of statistical independence of the information media: if Klein, Cowen, and Silver consider this, this isn’t three unbiased information factors. The opposite factor is that there are all kinds of dangerous conspiracy theories on the market now. Perhaps some folks wish to entertain the speculation that UFO’s are area aliens as a result of this concept is so innocuous.
Simply to summarize: Palko blames the New York Instances for the mainstreaming of current UFO hype. I assume this have to be a part of the story (UFO fanatic will get the UFO task and runs with it), however I nonetheless see that is as extra of a basic elite media bubble. Neither Nate Silver nor Tyler Cowen work for the Instances—certainly, both of them may effectively wish to see the Instances being taken down a peg—and I see their UFO-friendliness as an impact of being trapped in a media consensus.
Right here’s one other manner to take a look at it. A number of years in the past, Nate wrote, “Elites can have no matter tastes they need and there’s no motive they ought to evolve to mainstream tradition. However I do assume a number of elites would fail a pop quiz on how the median American thinks and behaves, and that most likely makes them a much less efficient advocate for his or her views.” There’s in fact no such factor as “the median American,” however I get what he’s saying. Plenty of People consider in UFO’s, ghosts, and so on. Based on a Pew Research survey from 2021, 11% of People say that UFOs reported by folks within the navy are “positively” proof of clever life outdoors Earth (with 40% saying “most likely,” 36% saying “most likely not,” and 11% saying “positively not”). Youthful and fewer educated persons are barely extra more likely to reply “positively” or “most likely” to that query, however the variation by group is small; it’s near 50% for each slice of the inhabitants. The “median American,” then, is torn on the difficulty, so Nate and the New York Instances are in tune with America on this one. Subsequent cease, ghosts (extra here)!
P.P.S. Non-elite journalists are doing it too! However I assume they’re simply leaping on the bandwagon. If it’s adequate for the New York Instances, Nate Silver, Ezra Klein, and Tyler Cowen, it’s adequate for the smaller fish within the media pond.
P.P.P.S. Still more from Palko. It stays attention-grabbing that this hasn’t appeared to have turn into political but. However possibly it’s going to drift to the fitting, in the identical manner as many different conspiracy theories, during which case our information media overlords may begin telling us that, by laughing on the concept of UFOs being area aliens, we’re simply out-of-touch elitists. Nate and the NYT are forward of the sport by taking these concepts critically already. They’re in contact with the widespread folks in a manner that Greengard, Palko, I, and the opposite 50% of People who’re don’t consider that UFOs are area aliens won’t ever be.