In his memorable evocation of the function of a constitutional monarch, the Nineteenth-century historian Thomas Macaulay intoned {that a} sovereign reigns however doesn’t rule. After Hun Sen resigns as Cambodia’s prime minister and fingers over the place to his eldest son, the self-styled “peasant king” will obtain the other: he’ll rule however not reign.
Hun Sen has insinuated that he’ll hand over the premiership to Hun Manet, a former navy chief and four-star normal, someday subsequent month. The long-anticipated energy switch is a part of an enormous generational succession within the ruling occasion.
In keeping with leaked official lists seen by this author and now circulating amongst political observers, the reshuffle will see virtually the complete cupboard changed by youthful officers, a lot of whom are the kids or family of different growing older occasion grandees. Inside Minister Sar Kheng and Defence Minister Tea Banh are slated handy over their places of work to their sons, too, in accordance with the lists, on which the federal government has but to remark.
But, Hun Sen gained’t stop politics. He has confirmed he’ll keep on as president of the ruling Cambodian Folks’s Occasion (CPP), which clinched a landslide victory at Sunday’s normal election, an anticipated outcome after it had disqualified its solely viable opponent from competing.
From that place, Hun Sen will nonetheless dictate occasion coverage and appointees. It now has extra authority to rent and hearth after the Nationwide Meeting’s authority to censure ministers was weakened by constitutional adjustments final yr. He’ll seemingly hold his different titles.
He was, for example, made honorary president of a recently-created discussion board of the nation’s enterprise tycoons. One imagines he’ll nonetheless accompany Manet on visits to Beijing, Cambodia’s primary benefactor.
It’s potential that Hun Sen will even create a brand new cupboard submit for himself (maybe “Mentor Minister”) or search to take the presidency of the Nationwide Meeting or Senate, the latter of which is able to permit him to be performing head of state when the King is in a foreign country, which he ceaselessly is. Doing so would give him further powers. It could additionally lengthen his diplomatic immunity. Final yr, the French authorities invoked that immunity to stop a French court docket from summoning him to a case involving a 1997 grenade assault on opposition determine Sam Rainsy, which Hun Sen’s bodyguard unit is accused of conducting.
All within the clan
Hun Sen has carved out a “personalist” rule for his family, now an important political clan. Hun Many, his youngest son, is anticipated to grow to be the subsequent Minister of Civil Service, in control of the sprawling paperwork. Hun Manith, one other son, will stay as navy intelligence chief and was lately made a deputy military commander. Mao Sophan, an in depth Hun Sen loyalist and head of Brigade 70, has taken over as military chief from Manet. Vongsey Vissoth, considered one of Hun Sen’s closest assistants, is tipped to grow to be the subsequent head of the Council of Ministers, so in control of cupboard affairs. Neth Savoeun, the nationwide police chief, who’s married to Hun Sen’s niece, is anticipated to grow to be a deputy prime minister. Hun Sen’s daughters management an enormous media and enterprise empire.
In some ways, Hun Sen will depart the premiership after 38 years because the “strongman” he purports to be. His household’s energy is safe. He has acolytes in necessary authorities and navy posts. His narrative that solely the CPP (learn: his household) can guarantee peace and stability is commonly employed for cynical causes however there isn’t a doubt that it appeals to many Cambodian voters, particularly these sufficiently old to recollect the genocide Khmer Rouge period. One thing akin to “Hun Sen Thought” might grow to be official dogma. His occasion maintains dominance of the Nationwide Meeting, successful all however 5 seats finally weekend’s election, in accordance with unofficial outcomes.
![ENG-KHM-ELECTION-COMMENTARY_07242023_002.JPG Hun Manet, commander of the Royal Cambodian Army and eldest son of Prime Minister Hun Sen, shows his finger after he casts his vote at a polling station in Phnom Penh on July 23, 2023. (Photo by -STR / AFP)](https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/cambodia-hunsen-hutt-07242023140632.html/eng-khm-election-commentary_07242023_002.jpg/@@images/7a4f6d2f-df71-459d-a744-0e55913ce5fe.jpeg)
The opposition motion that traces a lineage again to the Nineteen Nineties appears to be like all however a spent force. The economic system is in okay-ish well being, though structural debts within the property market may chew quickly. Cambodia is a trusted, “ironclad” good friend of Beijing’s, whereas Western democracies appear to have misplaced curiosity in attempting to roll again the tide of authoritarianism.
Democratic states will seemingly see an inchoate Manet administration as one they will work with, though their perception that he will probably be extra democratic and tolerant is a results of them predicting his actions by his popularity as a Western-educated, considerably cosmopolitan determine.
But, energy might be tenuous. And barely do dynastic successions occur as easily as imagined in dictatorships. Hun Sen could show historical past mistaken. With him nonetheless in cost behind the scenes, nobody will transfer in opposition to his son. However one may query why he felt the necessity for his eldest son to succeed him. Perhaps it speaks to his obsession with framing himself because the “peasant king” Sdach Kan, a Sixteenth-century usurper. Perhaps it’s as a result of he sees a dearth of different competent fingers to take over the premiership.
Extra possible, Hun Sen needs to maintain Cambodian politics a household enterprise as a result of that’s the one option to defend his household. Cambodian politics is a fancy net of patronage networks, resembling a past-century court docket the place the Hun household sits on the prime and the opposite baron households (the Tea’s, the Sar’s, the Sok’s) settle for the hierarchy however provided that they get their lower of the spoils.
Household fiefdoms
The necessary households have their very own ministerial and provincial fiefdoms, wherein they can provide profitable state contracts and concessions to their favorites and enrich themselves. All that requires cautious dealing with. If the equilibrium is disrupted, even barely, if one household feels its pursuits are threatened, that destabilizes the complete system.
On the one hand, the settlement Hun Sen has fleshed out, wherein kids of occasion grandees will now inherit their mother and father’ positions and patronage networks, ensures continuity. Alternatively, it’s an indication of the inherent weak point of the system.
A Hun needed to inherit the prime ministership to make sure the household’s pursuits remained intact. A celebration-wide inheritance scheme needed to be carried out to make sure stability, however lots of the successors aren’t skilled. Not solely has Manet by no means held an elected workplace nor held a governmental workplace, elevating questions on his expertise, however he will even grow to be prime minister with out the categorical mandate of voters. Tea Seiha has little expertise in protection.
![ENG_KHM_CambodiaElection_07232023_003.JPG Buddhist monks look at voters lists at a polling station in Phnom Penh on July 23, 2023 during the general elections. (Photo by TANG CHHIN Sothy / AFP)](https://www.rfa.org/english/commentaries/cambodia-hunsen-hutt-07242023140632.html/eng_khm_cambodiaelection_07232023_003.jpg/@@images/4d3d5499-f13f-4591-b26c-5967f44930de.jpeg)
This units up a stunted succession course of. The occasion’s present growing older grandees will resign however they’ll nonetheless rule. If finished correctly, the princelings will probably be given an increasing number of independence over time. If carried out badly, nonetheless, will probably be a succession in all however title, with the brand new era of leaders by no means in a position to stand on their very own two ft, rising the dangers of what occurs when their fathers are now not round.
As such, the switch of the prime ministership (seemingly subsequent month) will solely signify the halfway level of the complete succession course of. That may solely be accomplished when Hun Sen now not has any manner again to being prime minister. However for so long as he stays the powerbroker, Manet won’t ever be his personal man. His inchoate administration will probably be dictated to by Hun Sen, and his personal legitimacy will at all times be tied to his father’s. He’ll stay “the son.”
If this goes on for too lengthy and Manet isn’t given the leeway to make a crack at forming his personal popularity and associations, the hazard grows over what occurs when Hun Sen, who turns 71 subsequent month, really departs the political scene.
David Hutt is a analysis fellow on the Central European Institute of Asian Research (CEIAS) and the Southeast Asia Columnist on the Diplomat. As a journalist, he has lined Southeast Asian politics since 2014. The views expressed listed below are his personal and don’t replicate the place of RFA.