Down, from WSJ survey (as famous in article):
Determine 1: Chances of recession inside subsequent 12 months, median from WSJ survey (blue sq.), from probit utilizing 10yr-3mo Treasury unfold (purple), and for recession in particularly 12 months forward (tan). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: WSJ, NBER, writer’s calculations.
54% continues to be fairly excessive. Hatzius/GS at 15% is I think an outlier (which doesn’t imply he’s incorrect!)