By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Completely satisfied Bastille Day! –lambert
Chicken Track of the Day
Pink-breasted Lark, close to Lembeni, Kilimanjaro, Tanzania. “Recordist’s Notes: Track of two birds from the bottom.”
Politics
“So most of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are actually a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“Biden journeys on Air Power One stairs once more after ‘watch your step’ signal added” [Independent]. “‘About half method up he appeared to stumble very barely however stored strolling on up. He turned to wave to the employees out on the tarmac and went in,’ a pool report famous. The president’s newest slip got here days after an indication studying ‘watch your step’ was positioned on the steps main as much as Air Power One as he arrived at Stansted Airport in the UK on Sunday.”
2024
Time for the Countdown Clock!
* * * “Why Trump Will get Underestimated” [Rich Lowry, Politico]. “[Trump is] in a robust place to win a significant celebration’s presidential nomination for the third consecutive time, one thing that hasn’t been performed since Roosevelt received the Democratic nod 4 instances in a row from 1932 to 1944…. The Occam’s razor rationalization for Trump’s continued power is that he’s a very good politician, extra so than is often acknowledged… Beneath all of the Trumpian qualities, there’s a politician with most of the conventional attributes lengthy cultivated and prized by candidates and officeholders…. Since time immemorial, and positively for the reason that rise of the period of mass media, it has mattered whether or not a politician has private magnetism and may draw consideration…. In comparison with different politicians, Trump is just a little like how Eddie Murphy described Elvis Presley, whom Murphy admires for his sheer ‘presence.’ As Murphy put it, ‘When Elvis walked right into a room, Elvis Presley was within the fucking room.’” And: “On high of this, Trump is a individuals individual, whose infinite urge for food for discuss makes most extroverts appear reserved by comparability…. Not solely that, as a long-time membership proprietor, internet hosting and entertaining individuals is knowledgeable obligation; he’s completely able to being gracious when he desires to. This implies he has the nice politician’s knack for placing somebody comfy and making it appear they matter to him, earlier than attending to the primary occasion — Trump himself, after all, and no matter he would possibly need…. Lastly, authenticity is the coin of the realm in politics. Trump is canny, however not overtly calculating. Practically unadvisable, which his attorneys have realized to their remorse, Trump has a free and simple high quality. He’ll say no matter he desires, particularly about his opponent…. .” • Or a method that was as soon as customary. Examine this to, say, Buttigieg or, heaven forfend, Harris.
* * * “Three Issues To Watch This Summer season That May Impression The GOP Major Race” [Amy Walter, Cook Political Report]. “[S]ome Republican strategists I’ve spoken with argue that the load of Trump’s authorized troubles is taking an unseen toll. Republicans are rallying behind Trump as a result of they see him being unfairly attacked. However, defending him is completely different from voting for him. Many of those GOP voters are weary of the chaos and the drama that engulfs the previous president. And, .” Observe lack of company in “get.” Lawfare…. And: “Trump has each motive to be a no-show [at ]. No front-running candidate desires to offer their lower-polling challengers a chance to assault and/or embarrass them. DeSantis’ state of affairs, nonetheless, is a little more difficult. With out Trump on stage, DeSantis is the apparent goal for the decrease polling contenders. Everybody there desires to dethrone DeSantis from his second-place perch. Why give them the possibility to do this? On the similar time, together with his help slipping amongst voters, the donor class and even Rupert Murdoch, DeSantis must show he deserves to be seen because the most certainly successor to Trump. He has to show that he can each take a punch, and throw them too. It’s exhausting to understate the significance of those debates for DeSantis.” And: “The Hawkeye State has been notoriously dangerous at choosing the GOP nominee. The final winner of a GOP caucus to go on to win the nomination was George W. Bush in 2000. Nevertheless, Trump’s rivals perceive that if Trump wins right here, it might be not possible to cease his roll to the nomination. For this reason you might be seeing many of the GOP discipline camped out within the state…. That’s why we’re all ready with bated breath for , the gold customary survey performed by Ann Selzer for the Des Moines Register, to be launched. The final Iowa Ballot, performed in March, didn’t embrace any horse-race matchups, nevertheless it did present Trump’s general approval score amongst GOP voters within the state slipping. If historical past is any information, we’ll probably see an Iowa ballot drop in late August or Labor Day. This will likely be our first probability to examine in on whether or not all the cash and a focus that candidates like DeSantis and Scott have put into Iowa have moved numbers or if it reveals Trump’s endurance to be as sturdy as ever.”
* * * “Robert F. Kennedy Jr. press dinner explodes in disagreement and farting” [New York Post]. “Right here, it appears, [apparently drunk gossip columnist-turned-flack Doug Dechert, the host of the event], sensed the necessity for a brand new rhetorical tack, and let rip a loud, extended fart whereas yelling, as if to underscore his level, ‘I’m farting!’ The room, which included a handful of journalists in addition to Kennedy’s marketing campaign supervisor, former Rep. Dennis Kucinich, was shocked, seemingly not sure about whether or not Dechert was farting at Haden-Visitor personally or on the very notion of world warming. (Regrettably, we might guarantee readers that there was no room for doubt that the local weather modified within the rapid environs of the dinner desk.) The candidate maintained a gentle composure within the face of the disaster.” • The lead is “Camelot it ain’t.” The complete occasion, and the story, says loads about New York celebrities and press tradition. It says nothing in any respect about Kennedy, which is why the lead — “Camelot it ain’t” — is misleading. New York Journal doesn’t cowl itself with glory both, rewriting and enhancing the Put up story, and concluding: “Sometime this would be the solely factor anybody remembers about RFK Jr.’s presidential candidacy.” Properly, maybe not.
“Leaked audio of Marianne Williamson volunteer employees name reveals a bleak state of her marketing campaign” [Politico]. “Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson privately warned volunteers that her marketing campaign was determined for money and that she didn’t have the non-public funds to maintain it going at its present state. ‘I’ve put my very own cash in, and I don’t have the cash to proceed placing it in on the degree I’ve,’ Williamson mentioned in a Zoom name for marketing campaign volunteers obtained by POLITICO. ‘Trigger bear in mind I’m not making a residing whereas I’m doing this.’ A best-selling creator and religious guru, Williamson blamed a number of elements for the present monetary standing of her marketing campaign. Amongst them, she alleged, have been the press’ concentrate on inside turmoil and a concerted effort by her political opponents to sabotage her operations. She agreed with a volunteer on the Zoom who mentioned that ‘DNC insiders’ and efforts from the Democratic Celebration are decided to ‘undermine her marketing campaign.’ Williamson mentioned she mentioned the speculation ‘fairly a bit’ along with her marketing campaign supervisor Carlos Cardona. ‘It’s stunning to us too,’ she mentioned. ‘It actually makes you marvel. I’ve by no means seen something like this. And it does make you marvel…. politics is soiled.’ .” • Which they completely would do; they will discuss themselves into something. (Odd that Williamsonson has thousands and thousands of TikTok viewers however can’t monetize them. Perhaps she ought to rent, if sh e can, the one that ran Fetterman’s good social media marketing campaign.)
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently persons are really studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are a lot of updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “reside” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, actually, a tough downside. I do suppose the paragraph that follows is on level all the way in which again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Hear, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working components of the Celebration reinforce one another. Depart apart characterizing the relationships between parts of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not totally) these parts comprise a community — a Flex Web? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with belongings within the press and the intelligence neighborhood.
Observe, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * “The Case for Cornel West 2024 Is Extraordinarily Weak” [Eric Levitz, New York Magazine]. “Below Biden, in the meantime, Democrats enacted a $1.9 trillion stimulus invoice on a party-line vote. These measures collectively reduced poverty in the U.S. and triggered one of many fastest labor-market recoveries in history. Biden’s prioritization of full employment has yielded tight labor markets that increase the bargaining power of low-wage workers and abet union organizing. Because of this, lower-income staff have recovered roughly 25 percent of the increase in wage inequality that accrued between Ronald Reagan’s election and Biden’s. The employment fee amongst disabled Individuals, in the meantime, is at a record high.” • I’m just a little amazed that Levitz, usually a fairly sharp cookie, ignored, in his zeal to defend Biden, maybe the central truth of in the present day’s labor market: The million deaths from Covid (totally on Biden’s watch), and extra thousands and thousands affected by Lengthy Covid. After all the labor market is tight!
Realignment and Legitimacy
“The Disaster Over American Manhood Is Actually Code for One thing Else” [Politico]. “Earlier than Hawley, masculinist philosophers tended to find the calamity of manhood among the many overly refined, the gents of their exhausting collars and excessive hats. These fairly boys, they believed, desperately wanted time on horseback or soccer fields to place hair on their chests. Lately, elites like Hawley see a disaster among the many proletariat. It’s an surprising flip-flop, as staff and farmers, whom Hawley now faults for a scarcity of virility, have been as soon as the trustworthy, plain-talking household males whose manliness was held up as exemplary to neurotic snobs. Why doesn’t Hawley take his pitch to elites? He didn’t reply to a request for an interview on the subject, however maybe it’s as a result of males with out school educations are much more imperiled by mental illness, addiction and suicidality than college-educated men. They’re much less contented. They’re much less employed. And, for Hawley, which means they’re a riper political goal — extra simply offered on far-right memes and ‘woke’-bashing flexes as a method to remedy what ails them.” And: “What do males need? After the convention ended and I completed studying Manhood, males remained an enigma. That previous riddle deepens with the revelation, in Townsend’s e-book, that the phrase ‘masculinity’ was solely coined in 1890, and that, earlier than that, ‘manhood’ meant one thing like ‘humanity.’ Being virtuous (from ‘vir,’ that means man) meant merely being humane. Maybe masculine virtues like braveness, honesty, and respect are simply … virtues.” • In line with my OED, masculinity (from French masculinité) dates from M18, the center of the 18th Century. In the meantime:
Males aged 15-24 are gaming on the highest quantity ever, per Bloomberg: pic.twitter.com/Na2MPB8aSi
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) July 14, 2023
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the deal with given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Censorship and Propaganda
I’m undecided if it is a common downside or not:
It seems the Fb has eliminated the power to seek for the phrase “COVID” in all teams. Strive it for your self. https://t.co/F4HMwccIME
— Soylent Spring 🧌 Born to be Gentle (@Soylent_Spring) July 14, 2023
Can any readers who nonetheless have a Fb account run a search on “Covid”? In the meantime, right here’s Threads:
(On the iPad, displaying how Zuck was too lazy and grasping to make an iOS model.) That’s the results of a seek for Covid. True, Threads, although I reset my VPN from Singapore to the US, nonetheless offers me Singapore outcomes, thereby proving that Meta censors outcomes on behalf of governments, little question together with our personal.
Sequelae
“Determinants of the Onset and Prognosis of the Put up-COVID-19 Situation: A 2-12 months Potential Cohort Examine” (preprint) [The Lancet]. One other major study from last week, albeit a preprint. N = 548. From the Summary: “No less than 5-10% of topics surviving COVID-19 develop the post-COVID-19 situation (PCC) or “Lengthy COVID”. The medical presentation of PCC is heterogeneous, its pathogenesis is being deciphered, and goal, validated biomarkers are missing. It’s unknown if PCC is a single entity or a heterogeneous syndrome with overlapping pathophysiological foundation. In a big crossectional analysis, the RECOVER research within the US recognized 4 clusters of topics with PCC in line with their presenting signs. The long-term medical implications of PCC stay unknown… Preexisting medical and socioeconomic elements, in addition to acute COVID-19 signs, predict the event of and restoration from the PCC. Restoration is extraordinarily uncommon throughout the first 2 years, .” • There’s solely a significant problem in the event you consider Lengthy Covid victims would get care. However why would you consider that?
“One thing Terrible”
Lambert right here: I’m getting the sensation that the “One thing Terrible” may be a sawtooth sample — variant after variant — that averages out to a completely excessive plateau. A lot of exceptionally nasty sequelae, most certainly deriving from immune dysregulation (says this layperson). To which we’d add mind harm, together with persona adjustments therefrom.
* * *
Elite Maleficence
Touching the way in which Jha has Wachter’s again:
Wishing my good friend Bob Wachter a speedy and totally restoration
The reality is, respiratory sicknesses can wreak havoc in individuals’s lives — one thing we see on a regular basis within the hospital. And why we should always proceed to take it severely
Glad to listen to you might be on the mend Bob! https://t.co/C4NN8gLThf
— Ashish Ok. Jha, MD, MPH (@ashishkjha) July 13, 2023
Observe the refined minimization of “respiratory sicknesses.” Covid might current as respiratory, however it is usually a vascular and neurological illness, together with Lengthy Covid (not rationally classifiable as “respiratory” to the slightest diploma). These persons are so good at what they do….
The Jackpot
“A paradigm shift away from condoms: Focusing STI prevention on evidence-based interventions” [Journal of the American Academy of Physicians Assistants]. “Over the previous few many years, evolving and numerous sexually transmitted an infection (STI) prevention strategies—strategies considerably more practical than barrier safety—have prompted a paradigm shift away from the normal, restricted, blanket suggestion to make use of condoms. Though condoms present a barrier to physique fluid-based STIs equivalent to gonorrhea, chlamydia, and HIV, condom use is restricted and infrequently misunderstood, and counseling sufferers to make use of boundaries could also be ineffective.” And:
Reasonably than specializing in condom use, clinicians can enhance affected person sexual well being by following CDC tips to:
- carry out routine, opt-out HIV testing for all individuals in all healthcare settings
- talk about PrEP with all sexually lively sufferers no matter age, relationship standing or construction, variety of sexual companions, or barrier safety use
- display screen for gonorrhea and chlamydia infections of the pharynx, genitals, and rectum on the web site(s) of publicity, no matter indicators or signs
- strictly observe tips for bacterial STI remedy, particularly oral gonorrhea.
I’m gonna should put my waders and take a look at CDC and STIs, to see who else they’re infecting and killing [bangs head on desk]. Commentary:
The world has gone mad. Going for the complete pathogen embrace. pic.twitter.com/6eAGPwp1BA
— Denise Dewald, MD 🗽 (@denise_dewald) July 13, 2023
Condoms are a easy and well-engineered answer that variants can’t defeat. Why on earthy would we consider that PrEP and “bacterial STI remedy” will perform for the forseeable future?
* * * Case Information
From BioBot wastewater data, July 13:
Lambert right here: Nonetheless on the upswing.
Regional information:
Curiously, the upswing begins earlier than July 4, which neither accelerates nor retards it.
Regional variant information:
No matter the reason for the uptick within the Northeast, it’s not EG.5 (the orange pie slice), which appears evenly distributed.
Variants
NOT UPDATED From CDC, July 8:
Lambert right here: EG.5 shifting like a bat out of hell, displaying unactionable nature (uselessness) of those CDC two-week-lag charts (right here, and in positivity, too). They’re not even performative!
From CDC, June 24:
Lambert right here: Unsure what to make of this. I’m used to seeing a brand new variant take down the beforehand dominant variant. Right here it appears to be like like we’ve a “tag workforce,” all working collectively to chop XBB.1.5 all the way down to dimension. I certain hope the volunteers doing Pangolin, on which this chart depends, don’t all transfer on the inexperienced fields and pastures new (or have their entry to services minimize by directors of unwell intent).
CDC: “As of Could 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
NOT UPDATED From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, July 8:
NOTE “Charts and information offered by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not the complete pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Positivity
NOT UPDATED From Walgreens, July 10:
5.7%. Going vertical, although absolutely the numbers are nonetheless very small relative to June 2022, say. Curiously, these don’t correlate with the regional figures for wastewater.
From CDC, June 26:
Lambert right here: That is the CDC’s “Traveler-Primarily based Genomic Surveillance” information. They are saying “maps,” however I don’t see one….
Deaths
Iowa COVID-19 Tracker, July 14:
Lambert right here: The WHO information is nugatory, so I changed it with the Iowa Covid Information Tracker. Their technique: “These information have been sourced, through the API from the CDC: https://information.cdc.gov/NCHS/Situations-Contributing-to-COVID-19-Deaths-by-Stat/hk9y-quqm. This visualization updates on Wednesday evenings. Information are provisional and are adjusted weekly by the CDC.” I can’t appear to get a pop-up that reveals a complete of the three causes (high proper). Readers?
Total: 1,168,610 –
1,168,5581,168,414 = 52 (52 * 365 = 18,980 deaths per yr, in the present day’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “residing with” Covid (fairly a bit larger than the minimizers would love, although they will discuss themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I could should determine that is what the powers-that-be take into account “mission completed” for this explicit tranche of loss of life and illness).Extra Deaths
The Economist, July 12:
Lambert right here: That is now being up to date day by day. Odd. Based on a machine-learning model. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran without end with an enormous typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I obtained rid it. )
Stats Watch
There are not any official statistics of curiosity in the present day.
* * * Tech: “Numerous conservative grievances and hyperfixations” [Garbage Day]. “Musk purchased Twitter as a result of he believed it might grant him some form of cultural legitimacy. He’s spoken overtly concerning the social community’s affect on politics and media and the way he nonetheless hopes to show it right into a central feed for human discourse that we will all use whereas working as debt slaves in his mines on Mars, or no matter. And Musk, like all good conmen, has proceeded to show round and attempt to promote that supposed legitimacy downstream to customers, in addition to figures like Carlson or, extra lately, MrBeast, who Musk has been begging to put up on to the platform. However now Threads, with its hundred million customers, packed stuffed with manufacturers and actual, or real-ish, celebrities, has fairly effortlessly revealed precisely how small and, most significantly, area of interest Twitter is as of late. And I don’t suppose it’s going to take too lengthy for not simply media figures like Carlson, but additionally paying Twitter Blue subscribers, to understand that they’re spending all of their time and vitality posting on some bizarre man’s web site.” • I simply checked my Threads feeds and its simply as horrid as you’d count on: Some media properties the place administration mentioned “We’ve obtained to be there!” after which miles and miles of Instagram dreck, and nothing in between. And I can’t curate my feed to make the badness go away, as a result of Zuck wants to regulate the algo. A lot of the reporting on that is pushed by private animus towards Musk. And why? As a result of he took the Censorship Industrial Advanced’s play-toy away from them. Liberal Democrats hate it when that occurs.
* * * At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 80 Excessive Greed (earlier shut: 80 Excessive Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 77 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Jul 14 at 1:35 PM ET.
Class Warfare
One thing to look ahead to:
Boomers are going to maneuver into assisted residing retirement communities owned by non-public fairness, and all this wealth will likely be utterly stripped out of the inhabitants. pic.twitter.com/NwcU1ACuvz
— My weight class is Karen (@InsightTweeting) July 13, 2023
Information of the Wired
I’m not feeling wired in the present day.
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CH writes: “Unidentified shelf fungus on mature mulberry tree, Minneapolis.”
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