Headline and core are each at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Right here’s image of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).
Determine 1: Yr-on-year headline CPI inflation (black), month-on-month (gentle blue), and instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (crimson). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Yr-on-year core CPI inflation (black), month-on-month (gentle blue), and instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (crimson). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
So, brief horizon actions are in the identical course because the year-on-year which might be the main focus of well-liked dialogue. The pattern as proxied by Eeckhout (2023)‘s measure of instantaneous inflation is similar (downward). Core m/m is 1.9% annualized, whereas it’s 4% utilizing instantaneous.
For reference, listed here are the varied worth indices in ranges.
Determine 3: CPI (black), core CPI (grey), PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (gentle blue), and HICP (crimson), all in logs 2020M02=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Headline and core are each at 0.2% m/m, vs. Bloomberg consensus at 0.3%. Right here’s image of m/m, y/y, and instantaneous (Eeckhout 2023, T=12,a=4).
Determine 1: Yr-on-year headline CPI inflation (black), month-on-month (gentle blue), and instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (crimson). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
Determine 2: Yr-on-year core CPI inflation (black), month-on-month (gentle blue), and instantaneous (T=12, a=4) (crimson). NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, NBER, and writer’s calculations.
So, brief horizon actions are in the identical course because the year-on-year which might be the main focus of well-liked dialogue. The pattern as proxied by Eeckhout (2023)‘s measure of instantaneous inflation is similar (downward). Core m/m is 1.9% annualized, whereas it’s 4% utilizing instantaneous.
For reference, listed here are the varied worth indices in ranges.
Determine 3: CPI (black), core CPI (grey), PCE deflator (blue), core PCE deflator (gentle blue), and HICP (crimson), all in logs 2020M02=0. NBER outlined peak-to-trough recession dates shaded grey. Supply: BLS, BEA through FRED, NBER, and writer’s calculations.