By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Readers, for those who planted something on Memorial Day, I hope that went properly. –lambert
Chook Tune of the Day
Japanese Phoebe, Spruce Run Recreation Space, Hunterdon, New Jersey, United States. “Singing above boat rental.”
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) Google Search’s internal engineering documentation has leaked (!), and — maintain onto your hats, people — they’ve been mendacity lots.
(2) Closing arguments from the defense in Choose Merchan’s court docket.
(3) Bookcases have wonderful UI/UX.
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in actual fact a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a half a 12 months to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, Could 24:
Not a very good week for Crew Trump, with a lot of the Swing States (more here) Brownian-motioning themselves towards Biden. Not, nonetheless, Michigan, to which Trump paid a go to, nor essential Pennsylvania. After all, it goes with out saying that these are all state polls, due to this fact dangerous, and a lot of the outcomes are throughout the margin of error. Now, if both candidate begins breaking away in factors, as a substitute of tenths of a degree…. NOTE I modified the notation: Up and down arrows for will increase or decreases over final week, circles for no change. Purple = Trump. Blue can be Biden if he have been main anyplace, however he isn’t.
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Trump lawyer hammers Michael Cohen in hush cash closing arguments: Stay updates” [The Hill]. “Todd Blanche concluded his closing argument by giving jurors 10 causes the lawyer mentioned ought to give them affordable doubt of Trump’s guilt. Amongst different arguments, Blanche mentioned there was no proof Trump had an intent to defraud and that Cohen was the ’embodiment’ of affordable doubt. The jury was then dismissed for his or her lunch break, although the parties are debating a authorized subject earlier than they depart.” • So the headline just isn’t correct (and would have implied that Blanche was table-pounding and grand-standing, which in flip would imply that Bragg’s structure and idea of the case are stable, which might be dangerous information for Trump.
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “Closing arguments underway at Trump hush cash trial” [Politico]. 5 of the ten causes (and sheesh, in case your humble blogger have been live-bloggging this, you’d have all ten, WTF):
- Prosecutors did not hyperlink Cohen’s creation of invoices (for his hush cash reimbursements) to Trump himself.
- The Nationwide Enquirer was ready to run some unflattering tales about Trump regardless of a purported conspiracy to guard his candidacy.
- Belief points with Cohen imply jurors can’t belief the recordings he supplied.
- There’s no proof Trump sought to illegally affect the 2016 election.
- Michael Cohen is “the human embodiment of affordable doubt.”
Anna Bower of Brooking’s creature Lawfare does give the ten causes, in a thread that starts here, Right here’s the primary half:
I detest Lawfare, each capitalized and lower-case, however I don’t assume they make sh*t up, so I really feel I can low cost their protection appropriately.
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan) “CNN authorized professional says concept of Trump being acquitted in hush cash case is ‘out of attain’” [CNN]. “‘This was a winnable case. It nonetheless just isn’t a slam dunk, in my opinion, having been there day-after-day for the prosecution,’ Eisen mentioned in a CNN interview with Jim Acosta on Monday. ‘I believe the chances of conviction are someplace upwards of 80 %.’ ‘Partially due to this scattershot method, the protection just isn’t actually gunning for an acquittal. That’s out of attain right here,’ he continued. ‘What they’re hoping for is one offended juror.’ ‘Whether or not there’s one juror who both feels sympathy for Trump or simply for no matter motive doesn’t comply with the proof and the regulation. The holdout,’ the professional added. ‘That’s what they’re attempting for. Only one.” • After all, Eisen would say this. Once more, IANAL, but when the “object offense” has truly been within the indictment, maybe the protection would have been capable of put together one thing aside from a “scattershot method.”
* * * Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “Merchan and Bragg Style a Obscure Fraud Instruction to Convict Trump” [Andrew McCarthy, National Review]. “It offers with the central subject of fraud, and it’s fleshed out in a “red-line” draft train Merchan directed, wherein the events sought to slender disputes by offering the court docket with a draft that indicated what proposed directions they agreed and disagreed on. There, the next is obtainable to outline the central idea of intent to defraud. Except I’m lacking one thing, I don’t see any indication of an objection by the protection to this language: “In an effort to show an intent to defraud, the Folks needn’t show that the defendant acted with the intent to defraud any explicit individual or entity. A basic intent to defraud any individual or entity — together with the federal government or the voting public — suffices.”… However implicit in that’s that fraud, as initially understood, is a misleading scheme to deprive folks of cash or tangible property — concrete belongings…. As I detailed a 12 months in the past when the Supreme Court docket threw out two federal political-corruption convictions of cronies of former New York governor Andrew Cuomo, a major problem arises when politicians — typically, progressive politicians — try to stretch the idea of fraud in an effort to impose their imaginative and prescient of excellent governance. They do that by transmogrifying the concrete-property goal of fraudsters right into a imprecise intangible curiosity in honesty. This may get so imprecise that, in essence, prosecutors start indicting (pardon the tautology) misleading schemes to be misleading — i.e., circumstances wherein nobody was truly bilked out of something concrete, and even focused to be so bilked, however the fraud is claimed to be some artifice that produced a outcome the prosecutor doesn’t like… Thus does the footnote supporting the proposed fraud instruction elaborate that ‘within the electoral context,’ New York’s highest court docket has ‘acknowledged that the idea of fraud can embody any deliberate deception (to be dedicated upon the voters),’ or any ‘corrupt act to forestall a free and open election.’ That is method too broad. There nonetheless needs to be fraud — which means the design to steal one thing wherein folks have a concrete curiosity.” • Deeply ironic that the political social gathering of RussiaGate, the political social gathering of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer, would get all pious about “corrupt act to forestall a free and open election” — and switch them into felonies, no much less. As I maintain saying: How is that this totally different from regular campaigning?
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “The Closing: Trump’s Closing Argument Should Be Readability to Chaos in Merchan’s Courtroom” [Jonathan Turley]. “Even a cursory evaluate of the proof exhibits this case doesn’t have a leg to face on. “The useless misdemeanor that’s the basis for this whole prosecution requires the falsification of enterprise information. It isn’t clear that there was such falsification or that Trump has any data or function in any falsification. Witnesses testified that Trump would signal checks ready by others and that the particular checks on this case have been signed whereas Trump was serving as president. A few of these checks, labeled ‘authorized bills,” have been allegedly for lawyer Michael Cohen to repay Stormy Daniels. Most significantly, Jeffrey McConney, the Trump Group’s retired controller and senior vice-president, testified that it was not Trump who designated these funds as ‘authorized bills.’ Relatively, the company used an ‘antiquated’ drop-down menu the place any funds to attorneys have been designated ‘authorized bills.’ … The federal government additionally cites the designation of funds to Cohen as a part of his ‘retainer,’ which included reimbursement for the cost of the Daniels non-disclosure settlement. Nevertheless, that designation was the results of discussions between Cohen and former Trump Group CFO Allen Weisselberg, who’s sitting in a jail cell in New York Metropolis. The federal government may have referred to as Weisselberg, however didn’t.” And: “The federal government should additionally present that any falsification was achieved to additional or conceal one other crime. That is the place the protection must deliver larger readability to its personal narrative. Trump’s group must drive residence {that a} non-disclosure settlement is frequent in political, enterprise and leisure circles. The cost of cash to quash a narrative earlier than an election is neither illegal nor uncommon. Certainly, Keith Davidson, Stormy Daniels’ lawyer, described the NDA as routine and mentioned that it was not hush cash however a easy contractual transaction: ‘It wasn’t a payoff. It wasn’t hush cash. It was consideration.’… Merchan has allowed the jury to repeatedly hear of “election violations,” whereas blocking a authorized professional to elucidate that there isn’t any federal election regulation violation. The cost of hush cash just isn’t a marketing campaign contribution and, once more, the federal authorities not solely declined to deliver any felony cost, however discovered no foundation for even a civil high-quality.” That is honest, however the state regulation (§ 17-152, see subsequent merchandise) that may be the item offense requires solely “conspir[ing] to advertise or forestall the election of any individual by illegal means” which doesn’t equate to a marketing campaign contribution. Extra: “The whole foundation for the alleged felony intent is Michael Cohen, a disbarred lawyer and serial perjurer…. Cohen’s lack of credibility and his admitted monetary curiosity in attacking Trump solely spotlight once more the absence of Weisselberg, whom Cohen references repeatedly as the important thing individual making choices on how these funds have been made and described. If what Cohen mentioned was true, corroboration was sitting a automobile experience away in Rikers Island. Visitors could also be dangerous however it isn’t that dangerous. The one motive to not name Weisselberg was that he would contradict Cohen.”
Trump (R) (Bragg/Merchan): “What Should Prosecutors Show in Trump’s NY Trial?’ [Lawfare]. From Could 7, and price a learn once more. Key level: “Whereas the indictment alleges no conspiracy, as Bove accurately talked about, Bragg charged Trump underneath New York Penal Law § 175.10, falsifying enterprise information within the first diploma, a felony “stepped up” from the misdemeanor cost underneath § 175.05, by alleging that Trump cooked the books with the “intent to commit one other crime and support and conceal the fee thereof.” Justice Merchan has permitted the prosecution to pursue three theories associated to that underlying crime, often known as the item offense, however the prosecution appears to be zeroing in thus far on one, particularly: New York Election Law § 17-152, a misdemeanor offense that prohibits ‘conspir[ing] to advertise or forestall the election of any individual to a public workplace by illegal means.’ As Steinglass mentioned in court docket on April 23, ‘whereas it’s true that there isn’t any conspiracy within the second diploma cost on the indictment, it isn’t true {that a} conspiracy has not at all times been alleged to be a part of this case.’” • So Trump retains getting accused of issues — e.g., riot on January 6, however right here conspiracy — that no person ever fees him with. If he did it, why not cost him? IANAL, however this goes over my head.
* * * Trump (Bragg/Merchan) “One other Violation of Trump’s Constitutional Rights within the Bragg Case” [National Review]. Price studying on the “conspiracy.” However this: “[NMI/National Enquirer’s David] Pecker testified to 2 supposed authorized admissions of guilt. One was a non-prosecution settlement between Pecker and the Justice Division, which was premised upon the idea that AMI paying McDougal was a marketing campaign expense of the Trump marketing campaign and may have been reported as such. Notice that this was not even a proper act of contrition, not to mention a judicial precedent on the extremely debatable authorized idea that the cost was lined by the federal campaign-finance legal guidelines. The opposite factor Pecker testified about was a high-quality paid by AMI to the Federal Election Fee. However right here’s the important thing truth: It wasn’t Pecker who determined to pay the high-quality. He had already left the corporate. It was the AMI board that made that call. It did so for enterprise causes anybody may perceive: The corporate was attempting to promote the Enquirer, and companies routinely pay all method of settlements to get authorized controversies out of the way in which (even bogus ones) once they’re attempting to do a merger or sale of a enterprise. I as soon as labored on a case the place an organization paid six instances the statutory most high-quality — six instances what it may probably have been compelled to pay if convicted at trial — simply so it may get a merger achieved. Why does it matter that Pecker wasn’t concerned in that call? As a result of the choice to pay the high-quality was proof used in opposition to Trump at his felony trial. That, in sensible impact, made AMI a witness in opposition to Trump. The prosecution was successfully utilizing Pecker to confess, on behalf of AMI, that AMI broke the regulation. However Pecker can’t be cross-examined about one thing he didn’t do. Neither AMI as an entity, nor its board, was referred to as as a witness, so Trump was denied the best to cross-examine AMI about why it paid the $180,000 high-quality. That’s a violation of Trump’s rights underneath the Sixth Modification’s confrontation clause. Since Crawford v. Washington (2004), the Supreme Court docket has cracked down on using out-of-court statements by individuals who aren’t referred to as as witnesses, as a result of the Structure ensures the best of the accused in each felony case “to be confronted with the witnesses in opposition to him.’” • Attention-grabbing argument. Can authorized experts within the readership remark?
* * * Trump (R) (Cannon/Smith) “Cannon chastises Smith group, denies ‘gag order’ request in Trump labeled docs case” [The Hill]. “Choose Aileen Cannon chastised particular counsel Jack Smith’s group Tuesday after she mentioned they did not meaningfully attain out to former President Trump’s attorneys on a movement to restrict his speech within the labeled paperwork case after Trump claimed regulation enforcement had the ability to assassinate him. She likewise denied a movement from Trump’s authorized group searching for to censure prosecutors over the matter. Smith’s group filed asking Cannon to make clear that false claims from Trump violated his current situations of launch after he mentioned President Biden and the Justice Division have been licensed to ‘take me out’ through the seek for paperwork at Mar-a-Lago. Prosecutors — who like Trump’s group are required to talk to the opposite social gathering earlier than submitting motions within the case — didn’t achieve this till 5:30 p.m. forward of Memorial Day weekend. ‘The Court docket finds the Particular Counsel’s professional forma ‘conferral’ to be wholly missing in substance {and professional} courtesy,’ Cannon wrote. ‘It ought to go with out saying that significant conferral just isn’t a perfunctory train. Enough time must be afforded to allow affordable analysis of the requested aid by opposing counsel and to permit for ample follow-up dialogue.” • Smith is being infantile. Come on.
* * * Trump (R): “Eyeing Trump, however on the Fence: How Tuned-Out Voters Might Determine 2024” [New York Times]. “Politically disengaged Individuals are rising as probably the most unpredictable, advanced and doubtlessly influential teams of voters within the 2024 race. They’re fueling Mr. Trump’s present polling leads however in lots of circumstances hail from historically Democratic communities, giving Mr. Biden an opportunity to win a few of them again.” Reaching them is an issue: “In a presidential election wherein greater than 80 % of voters, according to a Pew Research Center survey, say they need one or each main candidates weren’t operating, some are opting out of straight-ahead political information totally… ‘When your group’s shedding, you don’t learn the sports activities web page after the sport,’ mentioned Ken Goldstein, a professor of politics on the College of San Francisco. ‘You might have a giant swath of the nation that simply thinks they’re shedding in the case of politics, and so the way in which to cope with that’s to only not listen.’” • And are they unsuitable? See Ferguson and Storm here. Spoiler: They’re not unsuitable.
* * * Biden (D): “Dems in full-blown ‘freakout’ over Biden” [Politico]. “A pervasive sense of concern has settled in on the highest ranges of the Democratic Celebration over President Joe Biden’s reelection prospects, even amongst officeholders and strategists who had beforehand expressed confidence concerning the coming battle with Donald Trump. All 12 months, Democrats had been on a joyless and exhausting grind by means of the 2024 election. However now, almost 5 months from the election, nervousness has morphed into palpable trepidation, in accordance with greater than a dozen social gathering leaders and operatives. And the hole between what Democrats will say on TV or in print, and what they’ll textual content their mates, has solely grown as worries have surged about Biden’s prospects. ‘You don’t need to be that man who’s on the document saying we’re doomed, or the marketing campaign’s dangerous or Biden’s making errors. No one desires to be that man,’ mentioned a Democratic operative in shut contact with the White Home and granted anonymity to talk freely. However Biden’s stubbornly poor polling and the stakes of the election ‘are creating the freakout,’ he mentioned. • Concept: Let’s assist out Large Z by constructing a pier in Ukraine. Possibly if we construct a pier on dry land, will probably be simpler.
* * *
Our Famously Free Press
“Washington Put up sat on Alito upside-down flag interview for years” [Axios]. “It turns out that The Put up’s former Supreme Court docket reporter, Bob Barnes, did a front-yard interview with Justice Samuel Alito on Jan. 20, 2021 — President Biden’s inauguration day — concerning the upside-down American flag that had flown exterior the justice’s residence in Fairfax County, Va. The Put up determined it wasn’t a narrative, till The New York Occasions broke the news on Could 16 — 3 years, 4 months later. The flag — which Alito attributed to his spouse, Martha-Ann Alito — raised ethics questions that have been heightened after The Occasions reported final week on a second provocative flag flown at an Alito property.” • From the whole story, it appears just like the “sign of misery” flag is all the way down to Martha-Ann Alito, who sounds a bit shrill; however the second flag, the “Attraction to Heaven” flag, appears to me like an open endorsement of a political faction,
Syndemics
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; consists of many counties; Wastewater Scan, consists of drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep protected on the market!
An infection
“Triple menace: The winter viruses you may get on the similar time” [The New Daily]. The supply is from Australia, the place it’s winter. “Within the first three months of 2024, there have been thrice as many confirmed Covid-19 circumstances as influenza circumstances. Because of this there’s much more of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus (which causes Covid-19) circulating locally than influenza. Worse, the loss of life fee related to Covid-19 was about 4 instances as excessive as for influenza. This may occasionally even out a bit of over winter, however Covid-19 will probably stay the most important menace of you turning into critically sick. Then again, RSV is a particularly frequent respiratory illness amongst babies. It’s extremely infectious, and but not prime of thoughts. It’s not as deadly as flu or Covid, however it may well get very nasty for the very younger, outdated and people in between with lung points.” • Australia, then, is within the grip of a syndemic. In the meantime, it’s past silly for the USA to consider that Covid is over when it’s rising in different international locations which have air connections to the USA.
Sequelae: Covid
“Lengthy COVID and heart problems: a potential cohort research” [BMJ]. N = 2545. From the Dialogue: “On this potential observational research of hospitalised COVID-19 survivors within the UK fewer than one in three sufferers with cardiovascular comorbidities or at excessive threat of growing [cardiovascular disease (CVD)] had full affected person perceived bodily, psychological and cognitive restoration as much as 1 12 months
following SARS-CoV-2 an infection. The profound practical deterioration and decrease high quality of life which have been beforehand reported at 5 months persist at 1 12 months, notably for these with established CVD or with cardiovascular threat components.” You may’t spell “Covid” with out “C, V, D”!
Origins Debate
Daszak’s EcoHealth, checked out merely as an establishment (an NGO that raised cash by snagging grants) was rotten to the core. Now it appears just like the NIH, one among its grantors, was simply as rotten. That is astonishing:
Why was Fauci’s Chief-of-Workers deliberately misspelling key phrases in emails? Not simply typos however utilizing particular characters (ex. Ec~Well being, Anders$n, and many others). https://t.co/YNn1AMFWTB
— Chief Nerd (@TheChiefNerd) May 28, 2024
Crafting emails to keep away from FOIA? Actually? What attainable good motive for that may there be? And the way far again does the rot go? Way back to Fauci’s conduct within the AIDS disaster?
Superstar Watch
Modeling good conduct:
If the paparazzi can inform that is Robert Pattinson, there may be completely no motive for there to be a ban on masks, for medical use, anyplace. https://t.co/u05z74OZlt
— Misplaced in a Dystopian Hell written by AI Monkeys (@lsthart) May 26, 2024
‘Tis a thriller (1):
Neil Younger’s Chicago present postponed ultimately minute ‘resulting from sickness’ https://t.co/2C5QfdKLHG
— Jess (@MeetJess) May 25, 2024
‘Tis a thriller (2):
Bruce Springsteen Cancels Present in Marseille, France “Unable to Sing and Carry out” https://t.co/fj28l4RXEl
— Jess (@MeetJess) May 25, 2024
‘Tis a thriller: “Novak Djokovic suffers sixth defeat this 12 months and admits he might battle at French Open” [The Telegraph]. The deck: “World No.1 at a loss to elucidate poor kind with Roland Garros defence trying even harder after Geneva Open defeat.”
Elite Maleficence
“Covid will nonetheless be right here this summer season. Will anybody care? [WaPo]. No, because the propaganda marketing campaign supporting a inhabitants cull has been Goebbelsian in its depth and immersiveness. “That is shaping as much as be the primary covid wave with barely any federal strain to restrict transmission and little knowledge to even declare a surge. Persons are now not suggested to isolate for 5 days after testing optimistic. Free checks are exhausting to come back by. Quickly, uninsured folks will now not be capable to get coronavirus vaccines free…. So we’re left with a virus that continues to hum within the background as an ever-present pathogen and sporadic killer. The general public well being institution now not treats covid as a prime precedence. Solely a smattering of passengers nonetheless put on masks on trains and planes. Weddings, holidays and conferences stick with it as regular. Many who do get sick gained’t ever understand it’s covid. Or care…. The CDC and well being authorities proceed to advertise the coronavirus vaccine, , as one of the best type of safety in opposition to the illness…. In April, hospitals stopped reporting confirmed covid-19 circumstances – ending probably the most generally cited metric for measuring the virus’s toll. The CDC nonetheless tracks the degrees of coronavirus detected in wastewater and discloses the proportion of emergency room visits with a recognized covid-19 case, which has been declining since February. However Hotez mentioned the accessible metrics are now not sufficient to correctly grasp the covid scenario.” That is maybe one of the best quote: “Many summer season campers, for example, will now not be compelled to isolate for covid whereas asymptomatic because the CDC revised its quarantine protocols to permit folks to reemerge after their fevers break, mentioned Tom Rosenberg, president and chief govt of the American Camp Affiliation. ‘ [cough cough] ,’ Rosenberg mentioned. ‘We need to maintain them in camp as a lot as we are able to so long as they’re properly and able to take part.’” • Little question! Nothing would please me greater than to study/settle for the Covid pandemic was over. Nothing official — not the info, and definitely not conduct — convinces me that it’s. Change my thoughts!
Lambert right here: Affected person readers, I’m going to should rethink this superbly formatted desk. Biobot knowledge is gone, CDC variant knowledge features, ER visits are useless, CDC stopped necessary hospital knowledge assortment, New York Occasions loss of life knowledge has stopped. (Notice that the 2 metrics the hospital-centric CDC cared about, hospitalization and deaths, have each gone darkish). Ideally I’d substitute hospitalization and loss of life knowledge, however I’m undecided how. I may also develop the wastewater part to incorporate (yech) Verily knowledge, H5N1 if I can get it. Solutions and sources welcome. UPDATE I changed the Occasions loss of life knowledge with CDC knowledge. Amusingly, the URL doesn’t embody parameters to assemble the tables; one should reconstruct then manually every time. Caltrops abound.
TABLE 1: Every day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new right this moment; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Useless.
[2] (Biobot) Useless.
[3] (CDC Variants) FWIW, on condition that the mannequin utterly missed KP.2.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, because the hyperlink is damaged, I think in favor of this thing. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal knowledge, if any. I favored the ER knowledge, as a result of it appeared actually exhausting to recreation.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Barely, however distinctly up. The NY city space has kind; in 2020, as the house of two worldwide airports (JFK and EWR) it was an necessary entry level for the virus into the nation (and from thence up the Hudson River valley, because the wealthy sought to flee, and across the nation by means of air journey). So my pure inclination is to see how wastewater at JFK and EWR is doing. CDC, earlier than it determined to butcher wastewater visualization, supplied knowledge all the way down to the sewage therapy plant stage, so I may test the Brooklyn plant for JFK (and in addition the Brooklyn plant for LGA). Nicely, that’s now not attainable, however the Verily [vomits quietly] wastewater website — Biobot being kaput — gives knowledge on EWR. Right here it’s:
So, New York Metropolis Hospitalization up, Covid from air journey up. Make of that what you’ll. Covid can also be up in Singapore and France, you’ll recall.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Slight uptick.
[8] (Cleveland) Leveling out.
[9] (Vacationers: Positivity) Up and down.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) KP.2 enters the chat, as does B.1.1.529 (with backward revision).
[11] CDC’s knowledge and visualization, nonetheless being up to date.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Federal Reserve Financial institution of Dallas’ basic enterprise exercise index for manufacturing in Texas decreased to -19.4 in Could 2024, hitting a brand new 4-month low.”
Retail: “Amazon Returns Have Gone to Hell” [The Atlantic]. “Should you can’t see and contact items that you simply’re about to purchase, you then don’t ever actually know what you’re going to get, and also you is likely to be disenchanted. Free transport and returns have helped customers hedge that threat. However free for you doesn’t imply free for the retailers, which lose some huge cash on restocking and refurbishment. As Amanda Mull wrote for The Atlantic final 12 months, the usual method of promoting issues on-line—with the blanket promise You may at all times ship it again!—has develop into unsustainable. ‘For the primary time, corporations are making return reductions a precedence,’ Jacob Feldman, an affiliate professor of provide chain, operations, and expertise at Washington College in St. Louis, informed me… ‘The secret now’s mitigation: How can we mitigate this loopy variety of returns?’ Rogers mentioned. ‘One of many issues you may do is put a bit of extra friction in it. They’ll by no means say returns are going to price cash or not be allowed. But when it’s a bit of extra inconvenient, that’s not essentially a foul factor.’ In different phrases, if a return course of put clients off simply sufficient to dissuade some returns, however with out upsetting the dear concept of free returns, that may be a web profit for retailers.” Caltrops wherever you look. However the story begins: “After ordering two packs of 11-inch, rope-woven storage cubes from Amazon.com just lately, I discovered that the ensuing cubes have been, in actual fact, 11-by-10.5-by-10.5 inches. Alas, they weren’t what I anticipated. I elected to return each units.” • So I’ve to confess — and I by no means thought this might occur — I’ve a wee little bit of sympathy for Amazon, right here. These are “rope-woven storage cubes,” not airplane fuselage elements.
Tech: “An Nameless Supply Shared 1000’s of Leaked Google Search API Paperwork with Me; Everybody in search engine optimisation Ought to See Them” [SparkToro]. “On Sunday, Could fifth, I obtained an e mail from an individual claiming to have entry to an enormous leak of API documentation from inside Google’s Search division. The e-mail additional claimed that these leaked paperwork have been confirmed as genuine by ex-Google staff, and that these ex-employees and others had shared extra, personal details about Google’s search operations. Naturally, I used to be skeptical. …. So, this previous Friday, Could twenty fourth (following a number of emails), I had a video name with the nameless supply. After the decision I used to be capable of verify particulars of their work historical past, mutual folks we each know from the advertising world, and several other of their claims about being at explicit occasions with trade insiders (together with Googlers)…. Throughout our name, this contact confirmed me the leak itself: greater than 2,500 pages of API documentation containing 14,014 attributes (API options) that seem to come back from I reached out to one of many world’s foremost technical SEOs: Mike King, founding father of iPullRank. Throughout a 40-minute telephone name on Friday afternoon, Mike reviewed the leak and confirmed my suspicions: this seems to be a official set of paperwork from inside Google’s Search division, and comprises a unprecedented quantity of previously-unconfirmed details about Google’s inside workings. Primarily based on the doc’s commit historical past, this code was uploaded to GitHub on Mar 27, 2024th and never eliminated till Could 7, 2024th… consider this as directions for members of Google’s search engine group. It’s like a list of books in a library, a card catalogue of kinds, telling these staff who must know what’s accessible and the way they will get it. However, whereas libraries are public, Google search is likely one of the most secretive, closely-guarded black bins on this planet. Within the final quarter century, no leak of this magnitude or element has ever been reported from Google’s search division.” • Right here is King’s technical evaluate–
Tech: “Secrets and techniques from the Algorithm: Google Search’s Inside Engineering Documentation Has Leaked” [Mike King, iPullRank]. “What I’ll do right here is contextualize a few of the most attention-grabbing rating methods and options (at the least, these I used to be capable of finding within the first few hours of reviewing this huge leak) primarily based on my intensive analysis and issues that Google has informed/lied to us about through the years. ‘Lied’ is harsh, nevertheless it’s the one correct phrase to make use of right here. Whereas I don’t essentially fault Google’s public representatives for shielding their proprietary data, I do take subject with their efforts to actively discredit folks within the advertising, tech, and journalism worlds who’ve introduced reproducible discoveries.” I’m pressed temporally, so I don’t have time to enter the weeds on this, however right here is one snippet: “It’s been a long-running conspiracy idea that Google’s standing as a registrar feeds the algorithm. We are able to improve to a conspiracy truth. They retailer the newest registration data on a composite doc stage.” • That feels like simply the kind of factor that monopoly experts like Stoller can be taken with. Does anybody within the readership need to do a deep dive?
At the moment’s Worry & Greed Index: 54 Impartial (earlier shut: 53 Impartial) [CNN]. One week in the past: 60 (Greed). (0 is Excessive Worry; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Could 28 at 12:33:39 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes up one on Floods. “It has been very moist within the US” [Rapture Ready]. File Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 189. (Keep in mind that bringing on the Rapture is sweet.) • Chook flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Purple Heifer loons need to construct, then the Rapture Index made the best name, amazingly sufficient. It mentioned: “Don’t fear concerning the Purple Heifers.”
E-book Nook
“The Bookcase as World’s Most Underrated UI” [Miller’s Book Review]. All true:
Digital guarantees instantaneous retrieval. But it surely by no means fairly delivers. Looking for a e-book in a digital atmosphere means scrolling by means of two-dimensional, generally black-and-white thumbnail e-book covers in hopes of recognizing the best title, or worse, scanning line after line of identical-looking, text-only search outcomes.
E-book app UIs have improved through the years, however they’re nonetheless fairly poor in comparison with the frequent bookcase. My bookcases at residence, for example, enable me to show a pair thousand titles without delay. They’re organized to my style, and I can discover virtually something in seconds.
Spatial data, coloration, and design all issue into the search outcomes. After I stroll in my research, I do know historical past and interval literature is on the left, chronologically organized, kind of. Enterprise books are straight forward, organized by topic. Psychology and artwork are forward to the left, philosophy forward to the best.
When on the lookout for a topic or theme, I can shortly spot a specific e-book I believe will assist. By grabbing just a few of its neighbors I can discover one other angle or two. And it’s all visually prompted and tactilely supported, as a substitute of manually keyed and electronically served. I can view the textual content and design knowledge of a dozen e-book spines without delay, run my finger alongside their edges and pull this one or that.
Shopping provides extra advantages. I typically need one e-book particularly however notice a second into scanning the cabinets that one other e-book will serve me higher. The bookcase provides serendipity in a method digital UIs haven’t but replicated or surpassed. That’s additionally true for measurement. My bookcases run ground to ceiling, wall to wall, on two sides of my research. No telephone or desktop can match that show.
Additionally, books and bookcases don’t go down when the grid goes down,
Class Warfare
“OpenAI and Political Bias in Silicon Valley” [RealClearPolitics]. AI-generated paintings representing each events, immediately recognizable for the fascistic kitsch that it’s. However this sentence caught my eye: “[A]sked to advertise careers that don’t require larger training, such because the trades, ChatGPT steadfastly options a picture of a graduate at its heart.” • ChatGPT is PMC to the core, then. Therefore the theft, the mendacity….
“The Loneliness of the American Employee” [Wall Street Journal]. • It appears like one thing occurred in late 2019/early 2020. I’m wondering what? Useful chart:
Are we belief scarring?
Information of the Wired
“Retiring overseas can imply extra forms than bruschetta. But it surely’s rising in reputation” [CNN]. “‘Our aim, which could be very doable primarily based on analysis, is to stay on lower than $3,500 monthly in Portugal whereas nonetheless having the ability to afford journey in Europe,’ mentioned [Laura Barnett}. Their financial adviser told them that to comfortably retire in the US, they’d need to have about double that amount — $7,000 per month.” • As I keep saying, if you (and your family, if any) don’t have a passport, you’re depriving yourself of an option. Of course, if the lunatics around Biden start a nuclear war, you might need to wear a Canadian lapel pin,
Contact information for plants: Readers, feel free to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a test in case you are allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are high-quality! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it firstly of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From CK:
CK writes: “This camelia was planted in 2019 at barely 6” tall. It’s taken its time however is simply magnificent this 12 months.”
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Right here is the display that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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