Reader Steven Kopits writes in response to Are you better off than you were four years ago?:
I donʻt assume persons are going to check something to the pandemic. Trump didn’t trigger the pandemic, and admittedly, most international locations around the globe suffered some form of financial shock. I donʻt assume thatʻs how voters are going to make comparisons.
They are going to make comparisons with 2019. The numbers are a blended bag.
I’m not so positive… Let’s truly have a look at the info.
Determine 1: GDP per capita now (blue), and 5 years in the past (tan), each in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 2: Consumption per capita now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 3: Disposable private revenue per capita now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 4: Unemployment charge now (blue), 4 years in the past (tan), in %. April statement is Bloomberg consensus. Supply: BLS.
Determine 5: VIX now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan). Supply: CBOE by way of FRED.
Determine 6: Financial Coverage Uncertainty index (blue), 4 years in the past (tan). Supply: Policyuncertainty.com by way of FRED.
Determine 7: Distress index now (blue), 4 years in the past (tan), in %. April statement of unemployment is Bloomberg consensus, inflation is from Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 4/30/2024. Supply: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Mr. Kopits additionally writes:
…it seems just like the median family is just not materially higher off than it was in 2019. A misplaced 5 years.
I consider that Mr. Kopits is visually challenged. Under I present the evolution of actual median family revenue, with the crimson line now drawn from March 2019, when the index stood at 111.6.
Supply: Motio Research.
So, to sum up: per capita GDP, consumption, disposable revenue and median family revenue are larger than they had been 5 years in the past. The unemployment charge is identical. The VIX and Financial Coverage Uncertainty (unhealthy issues, I’d say) had been larger 5 years in the past than right now. The damaging is the “distress index” is 1.7 ppts larger than it was 5 years in the past (however for sure it’s now decrease than it was 4 years in the past).
Lastly, Mr. Kopits exhibits a exceptional ignorance of phrases. He writes:
Btw, property taxes and residential insurance coverage have gone up lots since then, with none corresponding enhance in tangible advantages that I can see, not less than for most owners. On my present properties, my property taxes are up 37% since 2019. What are the presumptions on that from a ʻrealʻ perspective? Is there a presumption that providers have gone up accordingly, thus “consumption” has elevated? Or is it handled purely as value inflation?
Actual consumption is personal consumption on items and providers undertaken, in inflation adjusted phrases (Determine 2). Disposable revenue takes under consideration federal, state and native taxes (Determine 3).
Reader Steven Kopits writes in response to Are you better off than you were four years ago?:
I donʻt assume persons are going to check something to the pandemic. Trump didn’t trigger the pandemic, and admittedly, most international locations around the globe suffered some form of financial shock. I donʻt assume thatʻs how voters are going to make comparisons.
They are going to make comparisons with 2019. The numbers are a blended bag.
I’m not so positive… Let’s truly have a look at the info.
Determine 1: GDP per capita now (blue), and 5 years in the past (tan), each in bn.Ch.2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 2: Consumption per capita now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 3: Disposable private revenue per capita now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan), in 2017$ SAAR. Supply: BEA.
Determine 4: Unemployment charge now (blue), 4 years in the past (tan), in %. April statement is Bloomberg consensus. Supply: BLS.
Determine 5: VIX now (blue), 5 years in the past (tan). Supply: CBOE by way of FRED.
Determine 6: Financial Coverage Uncertainty index (blue), 4 years in the past (tan). Supply: Policyuncertainty.com by way of FRED.
Determine 7: Distress index now (blue), 4 years in the past (tan), in %. April statement of unemployment is Bloomberg consensus, inflation is from Cleveland Fed nowcast as of 4/30/2024. Supply: BLS, Cleveland Fed, and creator’s calculations.
Mr. Kopits additionally writes:
…it seems just like the median family is just not materially higher off than it was in 2019. A misplaced 5 years.
I consider that Mr. Kopits is visually challenged. Under I present the evolution of actual median family revenue, with the crimson line now drawn from March 2019, when the index stood at 111.6.
Supply: Motio Research.
So, to sum up: per capita GDP, consumption, disposable revenue and median family revenue are larger than they had been 5 years in the past. The unemployment charge is identical. The VIX and Financial Coverage Uncertainty (unhealthy issues, I’d say) had been larger 5 years in the past than right now. The damaging is the “distress index” is 1.7 ppts larger than it was 5 years in the past (however for sure it’s now decrease than it was 4 years in the past).
Lastly, Mr. Kopits exhibits a exceptional ignorance of phrases. He writes:
Btw, property taxes and residential insurance coverage have gone up lots since then, with none corresponding enhance in tangible advantages that I can see, not less than for most owners. On my present properties, my property taxes are up 37% since 2019. What are the presumptions on that from a ʻrealʻ perspective? Is there a presumption that providers have gone up accordingly, thus “consumption” has elevated? Or is it handled purely as value inflation?
Actual consumption is personal consumption on items and providers undertaken, in inflation adjusted phrases (Determine 2). Disposable revenue takes under consideration federal, state and native taxes (Determine 3).