By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Fowl Music of the Day
American Woodcock, Nebraska Missuonary Baptist Church, Macon, Alabama, United States. Pretty evening sounds, however I’m struggling….
In Case You Would possibly Miss…
(1) Bragg’s theory of the case eventually.
(2) Pennsylvania, the Jewish vote.
(3) Carl Schmitt, Nazi authorized theorist
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are in truth a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
2024
Lower than a 12 months to go!
RCP Ballot Averages, April 19:
Right here this Friday’s RCP polling. Trump remains to be doing very nicely in virtually all of the Swing States (more here), main with one exception: PA. Overlook all of the arithmetic, and take a look at PA as a take a look at of the Trump marketing campaign’s fundamental competence. What are they doing to repair this? (I’ll work out a greater solution to current this, however for now: Blue dot = transfer towards Biden; crimson dot = transfer towards Trump. No dot = no change (presumably as a result of state polls aren’t that quite a few so removed from election day).
* * * Trump (R) Merchan) “Trump legal trial wraps for the day after opening statements and first witness” (dwell weblog) [CNN]. Recall that Trump’s alleged data violations are all misdemeanors except they have been a part of an “different crime,” during which case they turn into felonies. Nevertheless, neither Bragg’s Indictment nor his Assertion of Details recognized that “different crime” (as I showed here). In Bragg’s opening assertion, he did that. His idea of the case: “Trump, alongside together with his lawyer Michael Cohen and David Pecker, the previous chairman of the Nationwide Enquirer’s mum or dad firm AMI, ‘fashioned a conspiracy … to affect the presidential election…. ‘It was election fraud, pure and easy,’ [prosecutor Matthew] Colangelo instructed the jury. The scheme was three-pronged, Colangelo stated: the trio sought to assist Trump kill unfavorable tales about Trump – a course of referred to as ‘catch-and-kill’ – publish favorable tales about Trump and publish unfavorable tales about Trump’s political opponents. He laid out three totally different cases the place the trio allegedly conspired to stop dangerous details about Trump from changing into public previous to the 2016 election.” • So election fraud, presumably on the State stage (and never the opposite prospects, state tax legislation, and Federal election legislation). I would want to see the statute to make sure, however this appears very weak to me, even weaker than the idea that the one actual property magnate in New York who ever engaged in puffery was Trump. It appears to me that it’s attempting to outlaw oppo (granted, a darkish artwork, however not unlawful). And when it comes to Democrart ethicalstanding, how is that this any totally different than getting most main venues to suppress the story of Hunter Biden’s laptop computer, and suborning 50 spooks to put in writing a letter saying it was Russian disinformation? Make it make sense, as the children say nowadays.
Trump (R) (Merchan): “How massive elements of Trump’s trial are taking part in out within the shadows” [Politico]. “Behind the scenes, a maze of arcane guidelines and archaic techniques has made it just about unimaginable for the media — and the general public — to entry key motions and pretrial rulings in actual time. New York’s docketing practices haven’t been up to date for the digital age. The choose, Justice Juan Merchan, has imposed insurance policies that pressure days and even weeks of delays earlier than essential paperwork turn into public. Once they do, they’ve been topic to a heavy, court-imposed redaction course of. And Merchan ceaselessly makes use of e-mail to speak with Trump’s protection legal professionals and the prosecutors from Manhattan District Legal professional Alvin Bragg’s workplace. That’s led to a ballooning set of off-the-book messages which might be shielded from the general public. The result’s that one of the crucial consequential chapters of American historical past is being drafted with lacking pages and invisible ink. ‘Particularly in a case like this, the place 48 hours can flip information into historical past, that’s not acceptable,’ stated Stephen Gillers, a professor at New York College legislation faculty who makes a speciality of authorized ethics. He described the redaction requirement specifically as an obstacle to public entry. ‘The choose, with a accountability to make the general public knowledgeable, ought to have made it simpler,’ Gillers stated, ‘and so ought to Bragg.’” • How handy.
* * * Trump (R) (Engoron): “New York choose units new situations on Trump’s civil fraud bond” [Axios]. “New York Decide Arthur Engoron on Monday accepted the $175 million bond former President Trump posted to enchantment his civil fraud case, however the choose imposed a number of new situations to make sure ample money funds stay obtainable…. Whereas Engoron allowed the bond to face, Trump and Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm agreed to satisfy a number of new necessities, per a spokesperson from the New York State Legal professional Normal’s workplace. These embrace that Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm will retain “unique management” of the $175 million account, and the corporate and Trump will present a month-to-month account assertion certifying that there are ample money funds for the bond. Knight Specialty Insurance coverage Firm has agreed to designate an agent of course of in New York The settlement between the corporate and Trump can also’t be amended with out courtroom approval.”
Trump (R) (Chutkan): “How Trump may win on the Supreme Court docket even when his broad immunity argument is rejected” [NBC]. “At problem within the high-stakes showdown Thursday is whether or not Trump’s legal expenses over his try to overturn the 2020 election outcomes ought to be dismissed primarily based on a broad declare of immunity. Even when the courtroom rejects that daring argument, it may nonetheless ship the case again to Washington-based U.S. District Court docket Decide Tanya Chutkan for extra proceedings on whether or not a few of Trump’s actions are insulated from prosecution With the case, initially scheduled for trial in March, already suffering from delays, such a ruling would additional imperil the probabilities of any trial being concluded earlier than November’s election.
Trump (R): “Did Donald Trump Simply Get Fortunate With His NYC Prison Trial Juror Pool?” [Newsweek]. • Sadly, I can’t get previous the paywall now. The concept is that the jury is filled with professionals, who will due to this fact apply their crucial considering abilities and actually dig into the element. Nicely, perhaps (and all it takes is one holdout). That stated:
Lawyer: Are you able to be obejctive?
Me: Completely!
Lawyer: *Selecting up large stack of papers* I’ve a few of your tweets right here.
Me: Superior!
Lawyer: It says, “Donald Trump is a fetid, rotting, mango.”
Me: Yep!
Lawyer: And right here you stated, “The one distinction between Donald…
— Machine Pun Kelly 🇺🇦 (@KellyScaletta) April 19, 2024
* * * Kennedy (I): “Kornacki: Low Curiosity within the 2024 Election a Vulnerability for Trump” [RealClearPolitics] “What the Trump of us have been hoping is RFK, third-party candidates, they gobble up some votes and Trump doesn’t have to get to 50%. However look what occurs after we add RFK’s identify to the combo. All of the sudden, we’ve a brand new chief. Joe Biden, 39%; Donald Trump, 37%. There’s Kennedy getting 13%. In different phrases, we’re seeing by a greater than 2:1 margin, it’s Trump voters who’re flipping over to Kennedy on this situation, not Biden voters. You see it proper right here. 15% of Trump voters, after we add RFK’s identify to the combo, they go to RFK. Solely 7% of Biden voters. There’s an enormous change proper there.” • This shouldn’t be shocking. “Change vs. extra of the identical.” Biden = “the identical.” Each Trump and Kennedy are “change” — Kennedy maybe much more than Trump.
* * * PA: “Summer time Lee’s major race checks fallout for critics of the US’s Gaza coverage” [Al Jazeera]. “It was not a well-liked stance to take. Tensions have been working excessive. And but, on October 16, lower than two weeks into Israel’s conflict in Gaza, United States Consultant Summer Lee joined different progressive Democrats in calling for an immediate ceasefire within the Palestinian enclave…. However Lee’s crucial view of Israel’s conflict in Gaza has made her a goal within the upcoming US election season. On Tuesday, Lee faces a aggressive major in her district, as a fellow Democrat seeks to unseat her for being too ‘excessive.’ Patel has seized on criticism that Lee’s rhetoric has been reckless. After the conflict broke out on October 7, 40 rabbis and cantors within the Pittsburgh space launched a letter criticising Lee’s response. In March, they launched a second letter accusing Lee of ‘divisive rhetoric’ that they ‘perceived as brazenly anti-Semitic.’ Patel has echoed that condemnation, highlighting the danger of anti-Semitism within the shadow of the conflict. However Lee has stood her floor, arguing that criticism of Israel isn’t the identical as anti-Semitism. ‘We’ve to be clear that no authorities, no nation is above critique,’ Lee stated. ‘The way in which that [Israeli Prime Minister] Benjamin Netanyahu has performed this conflict, it’s indefensible.’” • Presumably AIPAC is airdropping palettes of money into the district.
PA: “The Jewish vote may play an enormous function in 2024. Pennsylvania is about to place up an early take a look at” [NBC]. “Conversations with greater than 30 political strategists, activists and voters outlined how that [post-October 7] rigidity has put Jewish voters in an unfamiliar spot forward of the 2024 elections: on the entrance traces of the battle for management of the White Home and Congress. Nowhere is that extra obvious than in Pennsylvania, the swing state with the biggest Jewish inhabitants — about 300,000 voting-age Jews in a state President Joe Biden gained by roughly 80,000 votes in 2020. What’s extra, the congressional district that features Squirrel Hill includes a major Tuesday that’s among the many first electoral checks of sentiment on each side of the battle in Gaza and considerations over rising antisemitism within the U.S. Democratic Rep. Summer time Lee, a ‘squad’-aligned progressive crucial of Israel’s dealing with of the conflict and one of many first lawmakers to name for a cease-fire final 12 months, will face Bhavini Patel, an Edgewood Borough Council member who has painted Lee’s advocacy as dangerous to Biden’s re-election probabilities and out of step together with her district.” And: “Most Jewish voters in Squirrel Hill — and nationally — align with the Democratic Occasion. A Pew Analysis Heart survey released this month discovered 69% of Jews leaning Democratic, whereas 29% aligned Republican. However Republicans aren’t searching for a large defection. GOP strategists and Republicans concerned in Jewish outreach expressed confidence that Democratic divisions over Israel will assist transfer a small however doubtlessly vital variety of Jewish voters into their camp in battleground states like Pennsylvania, Nevada and Arizona. They pointed to surveys showing President Donald Trump’s improved performance among Jews in 2020, in contrast together with his 2016 race, as proof of a gradual shift that would proceed.
* * * On third events:
Look, I do know we dwell in a Goldfish Society that forgets its total world each quarter-hour.
Nevertheless, it takes one second to do a Google search of phrases like “McCarthy 1968,” “Reagan 1976,” “Kennedy 1980,” “Buchanan 1992.”
Folks do not must be this silly. They select to be. https://t.co/yq3XHcXbV2
— David Sirota (@davidsirota) April 19, 2024
Democrats en Déshabillé
“The GOP’s Professional-Russia Caucus Misplaced. Now Ukraine Has to Win.” [Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic]. “It’s not too late, as a result of it’s by no means too late. No outcomes are ever preordained, nothing is ever over, and you may at all times have an effect on what occurs tomorrow by making the appropriate decisions immediately.” • Wowsers. Applebaum’s career.
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Down on Legislation” [Boston Review]. “Schmitt presciently grasped that the event of state intervention within the capitalist financial system inevitably transforms the authorized system by producing open-ended norms, imprecise delegations of authority to administrative businesses, and heightened bureaucratic and judicial discretion. And he understood the conflicts between these authorized tendencies and conventional liberal notions of the legislation, and the methods during which these conflicts create countless invites for the unbridled train of energy. As an alternative of contemplating how we would make it possible for the interventionist state maintains constancy to the indispensable attainments of liberal legality, nevertheless, Schmitt merely thought-about these tendencies to be proof for the prevalence of a right-wing dictatorship freed from authorized restraint.” • Nicely value a learn.
Pandemics
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Covid Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be happy to contact me on the handle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Elite Maleficence
Rolling up sleeves and scrubbing my palms for the subsequent HICPAC assembly:
EDITORIAL: It’s Time To Roll Again All Mitigations In Hospitals: Gloves, Masks, Goggles, Clear Flooring, New Needles, Clear Scalpels, Every thing. If We Need To Win The Battle On Immunity Debt, Docs Should Do Their Responsibility And Infect Everybody With Every thing All The Time. pic.twitter.com/2GRZGc2Kz8
— The Vertlartnic (@TheVertlartnic) April 19, 2024
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new immediately; all others aren’t up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] (Biobot) Our curve has now flattened out at a stage far above valleys underneath Trump. Not an important victory. Be aware additionally the world “underneath the curve,” apart from peaks. That space is bigger underneath Biden than underneath Trump, and it appears to be rising steadily if erratically.
[2] (Biobot) No backward revisons….
[3] (CDC Variants) As of Might 11, genomic surveillance information will likely be reported biweekly, primarily based on the supply of constructive take a look at specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice every week; semiweekly.” Seems to be like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] (ER) CDC appears to have killed this off, for the reason that hyperlink is damaged, I think in favor of this thing. I’ll attempt to verify. UPDATE Sure, depart it to CDC to kill a web page, after which announce it was archived a day later. And heaven forfend CDC ought to clarify the place to go to get equal information, if any. I preferred the ER information, as a result of it appeared actually onerous to sport.
[5] (Hospitalization: NY) Flattening out to a non-zero baseline. I suppose to a tame epidemiologist it appears to be like like “endemicity,” however to me it appears to be like like one other tranche of lethality.
[6] (Hospitalization: CDC) Nonetheless down. “Maps, charts, and information offered by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Take a look at Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] (Walgreens) Leveling out.
[8] (Cleveland) Slight uptrend.
[9] (Vacationers: Posivitity) Uptick.
[10] (Vacationers: Variants) JN.1 dominates completely.
[11] Seems to be just like the Instances isn’t reporting loss of life information any extra? Possibly I want to return to The Economist….
Stats Watch
The Economic system: “United States Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Fed Nationwide Exercise Index rose to +0.15 in March 2024 from an upwardly revised +0.09 in February, barely exceeding market expectations of +0.09. It marked the best studying since final November….”
Delivery: “The 100-year-old railway Mexico hopes will rival the Panama Canal” [The Week]. “The revival of the railway line signifies that a ship may “unload its cargo from one aspect, ship it by rail throughout the Isthmus, and reload it again onto one other ship on the opposite aspect”, thereby offering a brand new route by which worldwide freight may circulation, defined Mexico Information Day by day…. The $2.8 billion challenge has been “buoyed” by Mexico’s more and more vital buying and selling relationship with the US; the nation ‘surpassed China this 12 months to turn into the US’s high buying and selling companion’, stated The Day by day Upside. On condition that America’s relationship with China stays ‘decidedly frosty’, Mexico can ‘really feel safe in its new place for some time longer’. Droughts are additionally placing strain on the canal. Final 12 months the foremost delivery route, which depends on recent water for its operation, confronted its worst drought on file, inflicting vital delays.” • Fascinating, although I’d wish to see some numbers. A Panamax isn’t that large, however how lengthy is a doublestack practice that takes all its containers?
In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 34 Concern (earlier shut: 31 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 39 (Impartial). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Apr 22 at 12:48:27 PM ET.
Rapture Index: Closes unchanged [Rapture Ready]. Document Excessive, October 10, 2016: 189. Present: 188. (Do not forget that bringing on the Rapture is good.) • Fowl flu not a priority, apparently. And I hate even to go right here, however the “Tribulation Temple” class is a mere 3. If Tribulation Temple = Third Temple = no matter temple it’s that the Purple Heifer loons need to construct, then the Rapture Index is making a name, and it’s saying “Don’t fear in regards to the Purple Heifers.”
The Gallery
Flat:
Inside with Egyptian Curtain, 1948
Get extra Matisse 🍒 https://t.co/NoY1e00LNZ pic.twitter.com/rl3tSYUBLr— Henri Matisse (@artistmatisse) April 20, 2024
Information of the Wired
“The ‘blem wit’ error messages” [The Register]. “Most of them have been verified in a method or one other; nevertheless I as soon as collected the pleasant however unverified ‘Shut her down, Clancy, she’s a-pumping mud.’… In these days, although, most error message have been rather less inventive. The explanation? Reminiscence was costly. So a few of them have been terse. I imply rlly trs… My private favourite remains to be one from the early 90s. And it was about as trs as they get: “blem wit”….. Sadly, the very downside that triggered the error message had the unlucky aspect impact of screwing up the power of DOS to put in writing to the display screen. So solely part of the error message was truly written to the display screen. What was that error message? ‘There’s a professionalblem with the Reminiscence Management Block for the shell.” • Oh,
“Webster’s Dictionary 1828: Annotated” [JSTOR]. “Noah Webster’s roles within the formation of the early United States have been manifold: editor of the Federalist Papers, proprietor and editor of the primary American day by day newspaper, textbook creator, a founding father of Amherst School, promoter of the primary US copyright legal guidelines, and creator of one of many first works on epidemiology, utilized by nineteenth-century medical colleges. However his 1828 dictionary is what he’s remembered for, coming at an incredible private price: twenty-one years invested, and a lifelong wrestle with debt. In his preface to the three-volume work, he writes of his hopes that the dictionary will end in his fellow People’ “enchancment and their happiness; and for the continued improve of the wealth, the educational, the ethical and spiritual elevation of character, and the glory of my nation.’” • Webster edited the Federalist Papers?! What a tremendous true reality. And I’m wondering what his epidemiology guide has to say about airborne transmission.
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