With implications for progress and demographic influences. From Rogoff, Rossi, and Schmelzing (AER, 2024):
Supply: Rogoff, Rossi and Schmelzing (AER, 2024).
Contra assertions of a good and constructive hyperlink between inhabitants progress and the actual rate of interest, they write:
…combination inhabitants progress charges and actual rates of interest have structurally trended in reverse instructions, aside from the latest many years. Throughout main inhabitants progress shocks, the 2 sequence are positively correlated, corresponding to through the Black Demise of 1348-1351, essentially the most dramatic demographic “uncommon catastrophe” hanging superior economies for the reason that Renaissance – a interval coinciding with a pointy plunge in world actual charges: however these episodes leading to constructive correlations stay a transparent exception over the long-run.
Positively meals for thought.