With This autumn third launch, we have now an estimate of GDO, along with GDP.
Determine 1: high panel, GDP (blue), GDO (inexperienced), GDP+ (tan), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Be aware GDP+ relies on degree of GDP in 2019Q4, GDPNow as of three/29 (sky blue sq.). backside panel; remaining gross sales (blue, left scale), remaining gross sales to personal home purchasers (tan, scale), all in bn.Ch.2017$, SAAR. Supply: BEA 2023Q4 third launch, Philadelphia Fed, Atlanta Fed, and writer’s calculations.
GDP development is 3.4% (SAAR), GDO is 4.1%, and remaining gross sales to personal home purchasers — typically taken to be one of the best predictor of mixture demand — is 3.3%. GDPNow for 2024Q1 is 2.3%, whereas the nowcast of the NY Fed is 1.9% (each as of three/29).