According to expectations.
Determine 1: Nonfarm payroll employment (black), civilian employment adjusted to nonfarm payroll idea (tan), Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages whole employment (inexperienced), and personal nonfarm payroll employment (purple), all in logs 2021M12=0. Supply: BLS through FRED, BLS, BLS, and creator’s calculations.
Observe that the change in personal NFP undershot expectations barely, in addition to that predicted by ADP private NFP.
Determine 2: BLS nonfarm payroll employment sebries (black), and predicted (mild blue), +/- 1 std error (grey strains), and Bloomberg consensus of 4/6, all s.a. Supply: BLS (February, March releases), ADP through FRED, Bloomberg and creator’s calculations.