Right here’re some indicators on the weeky frequency for the actual financial system. Bloomberg notes that GDPNow (3/16) mixed with SEP median of 0.4% progress price for 2023 implies 3 quarters of adverse GDP progress beginning in Q2. The most recent information under relate to late in Q1.
Determine 1: Lewis-Mertens-Inventory Weekly Financial Index (blue), OECD Weekly Tracker (tan), Baumeister-Leiva-Leon-Sims Weekly Financial Circumstances Index for US plus 2% development (inexperienced). Supply: NY Fed by way of FRED, OECD, WECI, and creator’s calculations.
The Weekly Tracker continues to learn sturdy progress, for the week ending 3/18, exceeding the WEI (1.1%) and WECI+2% (1.8%). The WEI studying for the week ending 3/18 of 1.1% is interpretable as a y/y quarter progress of 1.1% if the 1.1% studying have been to persist for a whole quarter.The Baumeister et al. studying of -0.02% is interpreted as a -0.02% progress price in extra of long run development progress price. Common progress of US GDP over the 2000-19 interval is about 2%, so this means a 1.8% progress price for the 12 months ending 3/18. The OECD Weekly Tracker studying of two.4% is interpretable as a y/y progress price of two.4% for 12 months ending 3/18.
Recall the WEI depends on correlations in ten collection accessible on the weekly frequency (e.g., unemployment claims, gas gross sales, retail gross sales), whereas the WECI depends on a combined frequency dynamic issue mannequin. The Weekly Tracker — at 2.4% — is a “huge information” method that makes use of Google Traits and machine studying to trace GDP. As such, it doesn’t depend on precise financial indices per se.
Pawel Skrzypczynski does the work on what the GDPNow calculation plus median SEP implies:
Supply: Pawel Skrzypczynski. [corrected 3/24]