By Lambert Strether of Corrente.
Affected person readers, I’m greater than a bit of behind the eight-ball at this time, as a result of my tiny little inoffensive — besides to someone! — Twitter account was completely banned. As you realize, I, whale-like, ingest monumental quantities of “krill” from the newsflow, and Twitter stays, even below Elon Musk’s light ministrations, the second-best supply for that, after the late-lamented blogosphere (not less than with accounts curated as fastidiously as I curated them). I’ve a back-up system of RSS feeds, however RSS is neither as environment friendly to learn or as serendipitous. Briefly, my workflow is basically [family-blogged] up, and so I’ll take a bit longer than traditional to cowl what I really feel I must cowl. Having examined the alternate options to Twitter, I feel the perfect different for me is to arrange a brand new account below a brand new title with a burner and a clear machine (each of which I’ve). Sigh. –lambert UPDATE Completed. Sorry for the day. I ought to be capable of return to frequently scheduled programming on Monday.
Fowl Track of the Day
Home Wren (Northern), Loyalton; Jones Valley, California, United States. “Track.”
Politics
“So lots of the social reactions that strike us as psychological are the truth is a rational administration of symbolic capital.” –Pierre Bourdieu, Classification Struggles
Biden Administration
“Biden’s finances boosts funds for future pandemics, however cuts them for present ones” [STAT]. “The Biden administration has rightly talked rather a lot about pandemic preparedness. And to its credit score, the newest White Home finances proposes new funding to cease future illness threats. Within the introduction to the worldwide affairs finances, the State Division celebrates how this cash will assist make the world higher ready. However there’s a catch. 100 pages later, alongside elevated funding for future pandemics, you’ll see it truly suggests chopping funding from three of the largest, longstanding pandemics we’re already going through. U.S. packages for international tuberculosis, malaria, and HIV/AIDS all get scaled again, together with by practically 10% for TB. This can be a false selection, and a incorrect one. All of the proof reveals we don’t want to decide on between stopping the present pandemics and making ready for the following one. The identical programs can do each, if they’ve the funding.” • Precisely because the fools at CDC assume we will flip the masks knobs as much as 11 after which flip them again down once more, as an alternative of doing what it takes to make masking a social norm.
“Justice Division, EPA sue Norfolk Southern for poisonous East Palestine practice derailment” [FOX]. “The U.S. Division of Justice and the Environmental Safety Company (EPA) have filed a lawsuit in opposition to Norfolk Southern Company and Norfolk Southern Railway Firm (Norfolk Southern) for the poisonous practice wreck in East Palestine, Ohio final month…. DOJ’s grievance seeks to carry Norfolk Southern accountable for the illegal discharge of pollution, oil, and unsafe substances below the Clear Water Act, and previous and future prices of the cleanup and harm of the occasion below the Complete Environmental Response, Compensation, and Legal responsibility Act (CERCLA).”
2024
“Manhattan’s DA wished a Friday Trump arrest. Trump’s crew stated no.” [Politico]. “The Manhattan district legal professional’s workplace requested for Donald Trump to give up on Friday following a grand jury’s vote to indict the previous president. However legal professionals for Trump rebuffed the request saying that the Secret Service, which gives safety element for the previous president, wanted extra time to organize. The change, which was relayed to POLITICO by a law-enforcement supply and confirmed by Joe Tacopina, a lawyer for the previous president, underscores the extraordinarily delicate, unprecedented nature of the indictment.” • I feel the important thing query is whether or not Trump can carry his personal digicam crew. (If not, I’m picturing Trump utilizing a cellphone to video himself, selfie-like, presumably with dwell commentary. Trump can affect with the perfect of ’em!)
“Tucker Carlson: Trump indictment ‘better assault’ on democracy than Jan. 6” [The Hill]. Carlson: “In case you consider in our system and also you need it to proceed, you must increase your hand and say cease, as a result of that is too nice an assault on our system, a lot better than something we noticed on January sixth, that’s for sure. That is transparently political, it’s meant to take him out of the presidential race. That’s not allowed.”
“Trump’s 2024 Republican presidential rivals soar to his protection after indictment” [NBC]. The deck: “Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Mike Pence and Tim Scott attacked the Manhattan DA and had been fast to claim that the indictment was about politics and never potential felony exercise.” • Because the indictment hasn’t been unsealed, we actually don’t know something. Which is driving me nuts. However Trump definitely has sucked all of the oxygen out of the race, hasn’t he? It’s GENIUS!
“DeSantis says Florida gained’t assist extradite Trump to NYC after indictment” [New York Post]. DeSantis: “The Soros-backed Manhattan District Legal professional has constantly bent the legislation to downgrade felonies and to excuse felony misconduct. But, now he’s stretching the legislation to focus on a political opponent. Florida won’t help in an extradition request given the questionable circumstances at challenge with this Soros-backed Manhattan prosecutor and his political agenda.”
“Youngkin stands with Trump amid indictment expenses” [ABC]. Youngkin: “It’s past perception that District Legal professional Alvin Bragg has indicted a former President and present presidential candidate for pure political acquire. Arresting a presidential candidate on a manufactured foundation mustn’t occur in America.”
“Trump’s indictment is a primary for U.S., however not for different democracies” [NBC]. Olmert (Israel), Netanyahu (Israel), Berlusconi (Italy), Chirac (France), Sarkozy (France), Park Geun-hye (South Korea), Chen Shui-bian (Taiwan), Thaksin (Thailand), Muhyiddin, Najib (Malaysia). “So American exceptionalism — till now. The opposite factor that makes Trump’s indictment not so surprising is the checklist of his former associates who’ve gone to jail or confronted expenses. Former marketing campaign chair Paul Manafort (whom Trump pardoned). Former authorized fixer Michael Cohen (who probably will play a starring position on this Trump case). The Trump Group’s Allen Weisselberg. Roger Stone (whom Trump also pardoned). Steve Bannon (the recipient of another Trump pardon).”
“Trump’s indictment rests on this weird authorized concept and has three main flaws” [FOX]. This caught my eye: “Regardless, the prosecution of Trump is probably going barred by the statute of limitations. The misdemeanor is 2 years, whereas the felony is 5 years. Neither could be tolled or paused below a strict studying of New York legislation. Trump could have been exterior of the state’s jurisdiction throughout a lot of the previous seven years, however his whereabouts had been well-known, and he maintained his residency in New York whereas president, visiting it frequently. Therefore, it’s unlikely that the 2 statutes of limitations can prolong past their expiration.”
“The Massive Drawback With the Trump Indictment” [Salon]. “Thursday’s indictment reveals that Bragg has already satisfied a grand jury that possible trigger exists to consider Trump dedicated an offense associated to this scheme. Profitable at trial can be a lot more durable, requiring the district legal professional to show every factor of the crime to a jury past an inexpensive doubt. That may probably embrace proving Trump’s intent to contravene marketing campaign finance legislation. Succeeding right here would require Bragg to place Cohen on the stand and persuade a jury that he’s extra credible than the previous president. That’s a tall order, and never simply because Cohen is a disgraced felon. Regardless of present proof of Trump’s in depth involvement within the Daniels scheme, we have now not but seen a smoking gun that proves his fraudulent intent (1) to falsify information in furtherance of (2) serving to his marketing campaign. It’s notable, although, that the previous mother or father firm of the Nationwide Enquirer, American Media Inc., signed a non-prosecution settlement with the Division of Justice in 2018 during which it admitted that its position within the payoff scheme was “to make sure that a girl didn’t publicize damaging allegations about that candidate earlier than the 2016 presidential election and thereby affect that election.” The previous CEO of AMI, Pecker, testified earlier than the grand jury and can probably show a vital witness in any jury trial. Nonetheless, Bragg will probably must show each the falsifying information to assist his marketing campaign components to safe a conviction, placing immense stress on Cohen’s credibility. He’ll additionally must refute Trump’s protection (already previewed on Reality Social) that Cohen (1) advised him the payoff was authorized and (2) he relied on this recommendation in good religion. Once more, the decision of this dispute could nicely dangle on the jury’s dedication of credibility between the 2 males.” • Don’t liberal Democrats know {that a} DA can get a grand jury to indict a ham sandwich? Or did they know, and have they forgotten amidst all the joy?
“The SPAC tied to Trump’s Reality Social surges 11% after the previous president is formally indicted” [Business Insider]. “Shares of Digital World Acquisition, the SPAC that plans to merge with Donald Trump’s Reality Social media firm, surged as a lot as 11% on Friday after the previous president was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury. The surge within the inventory may very well be pushed by the concept whereas the indictment is dangerous information for Trump, it may very well be excellent news for enterprise, serving to drive exercise and engagement on a service that appears rather a lot like Twitter.” • It’s an sick wind….
Democrats en Déshabillé
Affected person readers, it appears that evidently individuals are truly studying the back-dated put up! However I’ve not up to date it, and there are various updates. So I must try this. –lambert
I’ve moved my standing remarks on the Democrat Celebration (“the Democrat Celebration is a rotting corpse that may’t bury itself”) to a separate, back-dated post, to which I’ll periodically add materials, summarizing the addition right here in a “dwell” Water Cooler. (Hopefully, some Bourdieu.) It seems that defining the Democrat Celebration is, the truth is, a tough drawback. I do assume the paragraph that follows is on level all the best way again to 2016, if not earlier than:
The Democrat Celebration is the political expression of the category energy of PMC, their base (lucidly defined by Thomas Frank in Pay attention, Liberal!). ; if the Democrat Celebration didn’t exist, the PMC must invent it. . (“PMC” modulo “class expatriates,” after all.) Second, all of the working elements of the Celebration reinforce one another. Go away apart characterizing the relationships between components of the Celebration (ka-ching, however not solely) these components comprise a community — a Flex Internet? An iron octagon? — of funders, distributors, apparatchiks, electeds, NGOs, and miscellaneous mercenaries, with property within the press and the intelligence group.
Notice, after all, that the category energy of the PMC each expresses and is restricted by different courses; oligarchs and American gentry (see ‘industrial mannequin’ of Ferguson, Jorgensen, and Jie) and the working class spring to thoughts. Suck up, kick down.
* * * WI: “Protasiewicz, Democrats crushing Kelly, Republicans in direct donations, dropping impartial spending barely as race for Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom reaches closing days” [Wisconsin Law Journal].
Milwaukee County Decide Janet Protasiewicz, the left-wing candidate, reported elevating greater than $13 million to date in 2023, together with greater than $12 million within the final six weeks alone. Her right-wing opponent, former Justice Daniel Kelly, reported elevating simply $2 million within the final six weeks, and a complete of about $2.3 million in 2023. That cash is getting spent primarily on ads for TV, radio, print and the online. On the impartial spending facet, the appropriate is profitable, although with a a lot smaller margin. Organizations like Tremendous Political Motion Committees, often known as Tremendous PACs, that are banned from coordinating with the campaigns however can increase and spend limitless quantities, have spent $12.3 million supporting Kelly or opposing Protasiewicz, whereas teams supporting Protasiewicz or opposing Kelly have spent about $10.2 million, in accordance with estimates from the Wisconsin Democracy Marketing campaign…. In what has develop into an everyday prevalence, extraordinarily rich folks from inside and out of doors the state are additionally dumping big sums of money into the state’s political events, the majority of it to the Wisconsin Democratic Celebration.”
WI: “Janet Protasiewicz has campaigned on Democratic points. If she wins, the Wisconsin Supreme Courtroom might weigh in on them” [Wisconsin Public Radio]. “Protasiewicz, a circuit courtroom choose from Milwaukee County, has run a Supreme Courtroom marketing campaign on a scale by no means earlier than seen nationally, not to mention in Wisconsin. Her marketing campaign fundraising has shattered information, funding an advert blitz that’s onerous to keep away from, each on TV and on-line. Her message has additionally been brazenly political. Whereas different judicial candidates may trace at and even conceal their private beliefs, Protasiewicz has shared them for the world to see. She’s spoken unambiguously about her help for abortion rights and her dislike for the state’s Republican-drawn legislative maps.” • And there’s a lot to dislike about those maps. Placing your boot in your opponent’s throat is one factor. Truly slitting it’s fairly one other. As so usually, the Republicans are each extra critical about their electoral politics than Democrats, but additionally over-reach. (There are different types of politics than electoral, and in these types, liberal Democrats usually over-reach.)
Realignment and Legitimacy
“Nashville shooter Audrey Hale’s manifesto to be launched after FBI assessment: official” [New York Post]. “Nashville faculty shooter Audrey Hale’s manifesto is about to be launched to the general public after the FBI and its extremely expert crew of felony profilers analyze its contents, a Nashville Metropolis Council member revealed to The Submit. The official, a Nashville Metropolis Council member, “advised The Submit that Hale had ‘checked out’ two different colleges, each public, earlier than deciding ‘the safety was too nice to do what she wished to do.’” • The Submit story doesn’t erase that Hale attended the college — and shot each the college’s head and their baby, each atypical and never more likely to be random — however the Metropolis Council member appears decided to. Odd. Additionally, how did the FBI become involved? Was Hale on the Twitter?
“Nashville faculty shooter was ‘obsessive’ about former center faculty basketball crew” [The Tennessean]. • A tragic story. “America is like highschool” in so some ways…
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I can’t equivocate — I can’t excuse — I can’t retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Sources, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide information).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. We at the moment are as much as 50/50 states (100%). That is actually nice! (It happens to me that there are makes use of to which this information is perhaps put, past serving to folks with “private threat assessments” acceptable to their state. For instance, pondering pessimistically, we’d preserve the checklist and see which states go darkish and when. We would additionally tabulate the properties of every website and search for variations and commonalities, for instance using GIS (an train in Federalism). I don’t that CA stays a bit of sketchy; it feels a bit of odd that there’s no statewide website, however I’ve by no means been capable of finding one. Additionally, my working assumption was that every state would have one website. That’s turned out to not be true; see e.g. ID. Trivially, it means I must punctuate this checklist correctly. Much less trivially, there could also be extra native websites that must be added. NY metropolis in NY state springs to thoughts, however I’m positive there are others. FL additionally springs to thoughts as a particular case, as a result of DeSantis will likely be a Presidental candidate, and IIRC there was some foofra about their state dashboard. Thanks once more!
Sources, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Sources, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Sources, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (9), JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, otisyves, Petal (5), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Utah, Bob White (3). (Readers, when you go away your hyperlink in feedback, I credit score you by your deal with. In case you ship it to me by way of e mail, I take advantage of your initials (within the absence of a deal with. I’m not placing your deal with subsequent to your contribution as a result of I hope and count on the checklist can be lengthy, and I need it to be simple for readers to scan.)
• Extra like this, please! Whole: 1 6 11 18 20 22 26 27 28 38 39 43 47 50/50 (94% of US states).
Search for the Helpers
“You Have Lengthy Covid and You Don’t Know What to Do, Let Me Assist” [AutoStraddle]. “We obtained a query from an A+ member, which, as a result of the A+ Recommendation field is often behind the privateness of a paywall, we didn’t publish right here. The member requested for assets in coping with Lengthy Covid, together with signs their physician is dismissing as unrelated. As a result of there’s an amazing quantity of data on the market, the letter author requested for assets on step-by-step directions for managing Lengthy Covid signs, particularly information that has been vetted and gained’t trigger extra hurt than good.” This tip caught my eye; one of many properties of Lengthy Covid is dysautonomia: “The official option to take a look at for [Postural Tachycardia Syndrome (POTS)], which is the primary sort of Dysautonomia, is a tilt desk take a look at, however you’ll be able to replicate that in your individual house with what’s referred to as a “poor man’s tilt desk take a look at.” Get a pulse oximeter on your finger, which yow will discover at most drug shops for like ten bucks. Lie down and put your finger in it. As soon as your pulse is regular, sit up, after which arise. In case your pulse jumps 30 beats per minute, or extra, you could have POTS. File that in your telephone, greater than as soon as, so you’ll be able to present it to no matter physician you determine to see. They may not even require a tilt desk take a look at you probably have the video.” • Appears cheap sufficient, although thankfully I haven’t needed to strive it. Readers?
* * * “Introducing: The Covid Underground” [Covid Underground]. The deck: “Welcome to The Covid Underground, a publication for the Covid-free motion and all of those that proceed to keep away from an infection.” Extra: “True well being is the power to vary. About 10-30% of the U.S. inhabitants has modified their lives within the gentle of the releasing revelations of 2020, and we maintain altering. We’re dynamically, creatively devoted to what was— briefly— plain to all: regular is a harmful phantasm.” • Value a learn.
“Covid Meetups” [COVID MEETUPS (JM)]. “A free service to search out people, households and native companies/companies who take COVID precautions in your space.” • I performed round with it some. It appears to be Fb-driven, sadly, however you need to use the Directory with out logging in. I get rational hits from the U.S., however not from London, UK, FWIW.
Discovering like-minded folks on (sorry) Fb:
Thought I might add this right here in case anybody is . Locations to search out individuals who “Nonetheless Covid” in your space & on-line: https://t.co/T4ND4XbrpF & https://t.co/sP5wq4fAw5 You can too search on FB “Nonetheless Coviding ____” & see if there is a particular group in your space.
— Adriel Rose (@adriel_rose) March 1, 2023
Covid Is Airborne
This useful chart is screaming out to be an app:
The paper I referred to on @IndependentSage simply now’s Zoe Peng’s examine to quantify threat of covid transmission in several environments. Nice work from @jljcolorado + crew (I sketched the ‘qualitative’ desk – they did the onerous work placing numbers in).https://t.co/svCeAavKSn pic.twitter.com/frFW7IXCYf
— Trisha Greenhalgh (@trishgreenhalgh) March 31, 2023
Maskstravaganza
“Rise in Covid circumstances: Tamil Nadu makes masks obligatory in govt hospitals” [Times of India]. “Specialists have stated the speed of transmission of an infection and cross an infection is greater in hospitals. ‘We’ve got made it obligatory for medical doctors, nurses, technicians, administrative workers, sufferers and attenders to put on masks always in each inpatient and outpatient wards of all main, secondary and tertiary hospitals,’ well being minister Ma Subramanian on Friday stated…. ‘There is a rise in Covid circumstances throughout the nation. Though there aren’t any massive clusters, hospitalisations or dying, we’re seeing a gentle enhance in recent circumstances,’ the minister stated.” • The time to begin masking shouldn’t be after exponential unfold has already gotten rolling!
Remedy
Here’s a paper I’m actually wanting ahead to:
@trishgreenhalgh arguing that affected person voices and GP hunches proved to be way more precious than massive quant analysis initiatives in figuring out predictors of covid severity#BJGPRC pic.twitter.com/T6eHxvyhGK
— Luke Allen (@drlukeallen) March 31, 2023
Particularly if Greenhalgh’s analysis results in extra funding for GPs.
“Examine finds proof of resistance to COVID-19 medication” [medicalXpress]. “This examine—carried out by the Midwest Antiviral Drug Discovery (AViDD) Middle—reveals that drug-resistant variants have appeared a number of occasions independently in several elements of the world, with regional clusters offering proof for person-to-person transmission. Along with displaying resistance to the protease inhibitor nirmatrelvir, the energetic element of Paxlovid, the examine discovered {that a} totally different set of mutations presently in circulation can switch resistance to ensitrelvir (Xocova), a protease inhibitor now accredited in Japan. This new analysis reveals that easy single amino acid adjustments in SARS-CoV-2 fundamental protease might severely undermine efficacy of those antiviral medication. Based on Reuben Harris, Ph.D., co-director of the Midwest AViDD Middle, ‘Though our examine demonstrates the existence of pure circulating SARS-CoV-2 variants with resistance to 2 totally different medication, the excellent news is that their resistance profiles are distinct. Which means if one in all these medication fails as a consequence of emergence of resistance in viral variants, the opposite drug should work.”” • Till it doesn’t. I’ve by no means seen a examine that non-pharmaceutical interventions trigger resistance to develop. In fact, if you wish to maintain your product pipeline pumping, that’s a adverse….
Sequelae
“Does COVID-19 harm the mind?” [Harvard Health Publishing, Harvard Medical School]. From “Ask the Physician”: “We now know that, sadly, COVID can harm the mind in some ways. When folks first develop into sick from the virus, they could develop encephalitis — irritation of the mind — inflicting confusion, issue concentrating, and reminiscence issues. COVID can also set off the onset of recent psychological problems reminiscent of extreme melancholy or anxiousness. It could possibly even trigger folks to develop into psychotic — to see and listen to issues that aren’t there and to consider issues that aren’t true. It usually damages the mind’s autonomic nervous system, resulting in abnormalities in coronary heart fee and blood stress. As well as, the virus that causes COVID can infect and injure the linings of blood vessels and make blood clot extra simply. These two issues can result in strokes and coronary heart assaults, even in younger folks. A wonderfully wholesome 30-year-old son of a buddy of mine skilled a number of strokes when he received COVID. COVID-related strokes could cause everlasting issue in talking or understanding speech, weak point on one facet of the physique, and different signs. Even when folks escape mind harm throughout the preliminary assault of COVID-19, they continue to be at significantly better threat of varied mind circumstances, together with strokes, melancholy, anxiousness, and psychosis for the following a number of years. Individuals who had been initially severely sick with COVID are at a lot better threat for cognitive decline after they get better. Even individuals who had been much less severely sick stay at a considerably better threat. A big examine of MRI scans taken earlier than after which once more after folks received COVID confirmed that COVID can truly shrink the mind considerably. Lastly, the lingering signs of fatigue, ache, and issue pondering that may final for a number of years after COVID — referred to as lengthy COVID or post-acute COVID syndrome — might be attributable to ongoing low-grade mind irritation attributable to the virus. Thankfully, most individuals who get COVID don’t undergo harm to the mind. However some do, and even individuals who initially get simply gentle COVID signs are susceptible. So COVID’s potential to wreck the mind is simply another reason to do every little thing we will to keep away from getting this illness.” • March 1, 2023.
The very best mind fog is the mind fog you don’t know you could have:
…. each single one in all their messages has a number of typos and disjointed sentences, once they’re usually very exact…
— tern (@1goodtern) March 31, 2023
Jogs my memory of the concept the virus in its preliminary states has analgesic properties so folks don’t really feel sick. In order that they exit and unfold it….
One other instance:
So the electrician got here. He advised me he had Covid 3 occasions and had mind fog. All energy off to put in new switches. Solely it wasn’t all off. After I pointed this out he stated “oh. Good factor you checked” So bear in mind this when coping with folks within the daring vivid (silly) future 🤪
— GDW1888 (@gdw1888) July 22, 2022
And:
He’s self employed and I’ve recognized him for a very long time. I’m extra frightened about him than that mistake made at my place. That is how folks have accidents and die or get disabled. Covid shouldn’t be over and folks want to pay attention to how mind fog can actually trigger points.
— GDW1888 (@gdw1888) July 22, 2022
Elite Malfeasance
“Some folks wave away considerations concerning the long-term results of COVID-19 by saying, ‘if it was actually dangerous, the federal government would take steps to guard folks.’” [John Snow Project]. “The John Snow Venture has set out a few of the rising physique of proof that means COVID-19 is having critical opposed long-term impacts on human well being. This proof is, nevertheless, being subjected to the identical ‘doubt as product’ strategy that was efficiently deployed by the tobacco foyer to gradual the introduction of public well being measures to guard folks from the harms of smoking, and the underlying financial incentive is much like the rationale of the cigarette corporations. Whereas attendees on the World Financial Discussion board in Davos needed to be vaccinated, put on masks, bear common COVID-19 exams, and used superior air air flow, filtration and remedy to scale back their threat of an infection, the prices of such protocols to guard most of the people are extensively considered as prohibitively costly. As a substitute, those that wish to see clear air and protecting measures applied in all places, from hospitals to colleges, are introduced as fearmongers, who’re recklessly advocating funding in public well being with out exactly quantifying the profit, and doubt is solid over the validity of any proof that means COVID-19 could trigger long-term or critical hurt. We’ve seen this strategy earlier than, with retailers of doubt peddling uncertainty with a view to undermine stable scientific proof and dissipate the political impetus for motion.” • Capitalists have kind.
“Hollywood to Finish COVID-19 Security Settlement That Enabled Pandemic-Period Return to Work” [Hollywood Reporter]. “‘For the previous three years, staff all through the leisure group have benefited from our sturdy protections exceeding the practices of many different industries,’ a coalition of unions together with the Administrators Guild of America and SAG-AFTRA stated in an announcement. ‘With the general public well being emergency now ending and the expiration of the COVID-19 Security Settlement, particular person employers proceed to be chargeable for guaranteeing secure workplaces for his or her workers, however should search separate settlement with the relevant joint unions earlier than implementing any COVID security protocols.’” • Not unions, essentially. Union management.
Bonnie Henry, sociopath, continues to be at it:
Dr. Henry, March 30, 2023: “However what we have now seen is a lower within the variety of folks with Lengthy Covid.”
In no universe might this assertion precisely mirror actuality. Covid continues to be in all places. The concept #LongCovid numbers are reducing is pure fiction. pic.twitter.com/K0FAvqZFjZ
— Tom Jackman (@frozen) March 31, 2023
Appears to be like like “leveling off to a excessive plateau” throughout the board. (I nonetheless assume “One thing Terrible” is coming, nevertheless. I imply, apart from what we already learn about.) Keep secure on the market!
Case Information
NOT UPDATED BioBot wastewater data from March 27:
Lambert right here: The decline appears to have bottomed out? Disappointing, with positivity and deaths nonetheless happening. Nevertheless, word that if we take a look at “the realm below the curve,” extra folks have died after Biden declared that “Covid is over” than earlier than.
For now, I’m going to make use of this nationwide wastewater information as the perfect proxy for case information (ignoring the medical case information portion of this chart, which in my opinion “goes dangerous” after March 2022, for causes as but unexplained). A minimum of we will spot tendencies, and examine present ranges to equal previous ranges.
Covid Emergency Room Visits
From CDC NCIRD Surveillance, from March 25:
NOTE “Charts and information supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous 12 months, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “similar to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is acceptable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these folks a lot. Anyhow, I added a gray “Fauci line” simply to point out that Covid wasn’t “over” once they began saying it was, and it’s not over now. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, not less than for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, despite the fact that CDC is attempting to get us to consider that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the prevailing institutional equipment for injections.
Positivity
From the Walgreen’s test positivity tracker, revealed March 31:
0.3%. On the low level of the final valley, however the first enhance in awhile (together with slight will increase in each circumstances as measured by wastewater, and deaths, albeit totally different lagged).
Deaths
Demise fee (Our World in Data):
Total: 1,154,894 – 1,154,353 = 541 (541 * 365 = 197,465 deaths per 12 months, at this time’s YouGenicist™ quantity for “dwelling with” Covid (fairly a bit greater than the minimizers would really like, although they will speak themselves into something. If the YouGenicist™ metric retains chugging alongside like this, I may must determine that is what the powers-that-be contemplate “mission achieved” for this explicit tranche of dying and illness).
Extra Deaths
NOT UPDATED Extra deaths (The Economist), revealed March 28:
Lambert right here: Based on a machine-learning model. Appears to be like like a knowledge challenge, to me. I”m undecided how usually this updates, and if it doesn’t, I’ll take away it. (The CDC has an extra estimate too, however because it ran ceaselessly with a large typo within the Legend, I figured no one was actually taking a look at it, so I received rid it.
Stats Watch
Manufacturing: “United States Chicago PMI” [Trading Economics]. “The Chicago Enterprise Barometer, often known as the Chicago PMI, elevated for the primary time this 12 months to 43.80 factors in March of 2023 from 43.60 factors in February, beating forecasts of 43.4. Nevertheless, the studying nonetheless pointed to a seventh straight month of contraction in enterprise exercise.”
Tech: “Folks Are Creating Information of Faux Historic Occasions Utilizing AI” [Vice]. “In one other put up, a person named FinewithIX, whose actual title is Jordan Rhone, posted a collage of 4 AI-generated photographs that depicted ‘Staging the Moon Touchdown, 1969.’ The photographs mimicked the grainier, movie high quality of images taken within the late 60s and confirmed the behind-the-scenes of individuals filming and photographing a faux moon touchdown. Customers instantly responded to the picture with considerations about how Midjourney and different text-to-image mills can now be weaponized by conspiracy theorists to unfold false historic data. ‘Yet one more instance of how MJ will gas conspiracy theories. What a time to be alive!’ person charismactivist commented on the put up.” • Weaponized historical past from CTers is trivial put beside weaponized historical past from the ruling class.
Tech: “Why the AI business might stand to decelerate a bit of” [The Verge]. “The founding father of open-source intelligence website Bellingcat was banned from Midjourney after utilizing it to create and distribute some eerily believable photographs of Donald Trump getting arrested.” • Life’s little ironies. As I simply stated: “Weaponized historical past from CTers is trivial put beside weaponized historical past from the ruling class.”
Tech: “Microsoft Now Claims GPT-4 Reveals ‘Sparks’ of Common Intelligence” [Vice]. The deck: “The eyebrow-raising declare from Microsoft—which is banking on GPT placing it forward of Google—contrasts with the mannequin’s clear limitations.” As soon as once more:
Tech: “Belgian girl blames ChatGPT-like chatbot ELIZA for her husband’s suicide” [Interesting Engineering]. “The widow of a Belgian man who lately killed himself alleges that an (synthetic intelligence) AI chatbot compelled her husband to commit suicide. The daddy of two reportedly had day by day exchanges with ‘ELIZA,’ a chatbot constructed by a US start-up using GPT-J expertise, an open-source substitute for OpenAI’s GPT-3, in accordance with a report by Belgian newspaper La Libre on Tuesday. ‘With out these conversations with the chatbot ELIZA, my husband would nonetheless be right here,’ she advised La Libre…. As per the report, the person killed himself six weeks after talking with ELIZA. … The particular person had excessive eco-anxiety that developed two years in the past and sought consolation from ELIZA, a chatbot powered by EleutherAI’s GPT-J open-source synthetic intelligence language mannequin, in accordance with the household…. The chatbot’s Silicon Valley-based founder advised La Libre that his crew is “working to enhance the protection of the AI…. This wouldn’t be the primary, although; beforehand, many customers have complained about Microsoft’s new ChatGPT-powered Bing AI’s “unhinged” responses.” • Not, then, I’m guessing, a type of “sparks”?
Right this moment’s Concern & Greed Index: 48 Impartial (earlier shut: 44 Concern) [CNN]. One week in the past: 37 (Concern). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Mar 31 at 2:12 PM ET. Mr. Market: “Banking disaster? What banking disaster?”
Healthcare
“Texas choose strikes down main Obamacare provision defending preventive care” [STAT]. “A federal choose Thursday reversed a serious Obamacare provision requiring plans to cowl preventive care starting from most cancers and power illness screenings to being pregnant care and sure medication. The ruling might deal a large blow to President Joe Biden’s moonshot aim of slashing most cancers charges by way of early screenings . It additionally leaves the door open for insurers to refuse protection of statins, medication stopping HIV transmission referred to as PrEP, and an enormous vary of well being screenings beneficial by federal officers. It might additionally finally threaten the Biden administration’s efforts to decrease maternal and toddler mortality charges and bolster reproductive rights within the wake of Roe’s overturn. Decide Reed O’Connor of the U.S. District Courtroom for the Northern District of Texas stated the Reasonably priced Care Act requirement for insurers to cowl care and merchandise beneficial by the U.S. Preventive Companies Process Drive is unconstitutional as a result of members of that panel — 16 volunteers, usually medical doctors and scientists — weren’t appointed by the president and accredited by the Senate, violating the U.S. Structure’s appointments clause.” • Article II, Part 2, Clause 2: “[The President] shall have Energy, by and with the Recommendation and Consent of the Senate, to make Treaties, supplied two thirds of the Senators current concur; and he shall nominate, and by and with the Recommendation and Consent of the Senate, shall appoint Ambassadors, different public Ministers and Consuls, Judges of the supreme Courtroom, and all different Officers of the US, whose Appointments aren’t herein in any other case supplied for, and which shall be established by Legislation: however the Congress could by Legislation vest the Appointment of such inferior Officers, as they assume correct, within the President alone, within the Courts of Legislation, or within the Heads of Departments.” Unsure of the implications of this for the Administrative State. In all probability dangerous.
Class Warfare
“Low Jobless Claims Present Labor Market Shrugs Off Economic system’s Clouds” [Wall Street Journal]. “Employee filings for unemployment advantages rose final week however had been nonetheless traditionally low, displaying that the broader labor market stays sturdy regardless of massive corporations saying layoffs… The extent of claims fluctuated earlier this month, however broadly stays low. The four-week common of weekly claims, which smooths out volatility within the weekly numbers, ticked up by 2,000 to 198,250. Weekly claims have remained close to the 2019 prepandemic common of about 220,000 for a number of months.” • Dang.
“Why are Individuals dying so younger?” [Financial Times]. “That the US has a poor file on life expectancy is nothing new. For the perfect a part of a decade, American lives have grown progressively shorter relative to look international locations. However beneath the floor, a number of hanging particulars demand our consideration and an pressing effort to reverse the development. American life expectancy compares extraordinarily unfavourably with the UK. The English seaside city of Blackpool has been synonymous with deep-rooted social decline for a lot of the previous decade. It has England’s lowest life expectancy, highest charges of relationship breakdown and a few of the highest charges of antidepressant prescribing. However as of 2019, that health-adjusted life expectancy of 65 (the variety of years somebody could be anticipated to dwell with out a incapacity) was the identical as the typical for all the US. Folks born within the very poorest pockets of Blackpool are anticipated to dwell absolutely 5 years greater than the poorest within the US. This could be damning sufficient, however we’ve not but accounted for the truth that the richest Individuals are a lot richer than their British counterparts. As soon as we do, Britain pulls clear at each earnings degree. Somebody with a web family earnings of about £65,000 or $100,000 will dwell to a mean age of 85 in England, however solely 80 within the US.” • Useful chart:
Information of the Wired
“The Museum of Failure Celebrates A few of the World’s Largest Flops” [Smithsonian]. “By spotlighting greater than 150 business concepts that didn’t pan out for varied causes, the exhibition “goals to stimulate dialogue about accepting and studying from failure,” per its Instagram web page. A couple of notable examples: New Coke, Bic for Her pens, Limeade-flavored Oreo cookies, Colgate lasagna, Crystal Pepsi and a gyrating ‘hula chair’ for train.” • “Limeade-flavored Oreos”? What subsequent? Lady Scout Skinny Mints®, “Now With Added Gravel”? How did a challenge like that ever get greenlighted? Perhaps we want a Museum of Dangerous Memos, too…
“The Origins of Human Empathy Could Go All The Method Again to The Ocean” [Science Alert]. “Earlier research on zebrafish (Danio rerio) supplied insights into their transmission of alarm responses, introduced as erratic and freezing habits in people, and the elevation of cortisol ranges in close by observers. Primarily based on these findings, it may very well be concluded that the biology of experiencing stress after witnessing concern responses in one other is analogous sufficient in all vertebrates to have developed in a shared ancestor. In its easiest kind, the discharge of oxytocin might additionally merely set off a mirroring of behaviors within the fish. Seeing misery in a fellow swimmer may create the identical inside response of their friends, for instance. To see if this was what was taking place, the researchers confirmed particular person fish video clips of others in misery or impartial states earlier than inserting them collectively, together with another fish, after a brief period of time had handed. Curiously, the observer most popular to cuddle as much as the people they’d beforehand seen distressed than to the neutral-acting fish, suggesting one thing extra needed to be happening. Simply how deeply we’d learn into the experiment is tough to say. It’s simple for us to see our personal behaviors within the fish – we’ve had tens of millions of years of evolution setting our empathy programs to hyperdrive, in any case. It’s tempting to assume the biochemical equipment chargeable for our personal social behaviors are constructed on foundations similar to the mechanisms of concern contagion in fish.” • I’m working on my cortisol levels by eating walnuts.
“Have Any Animals Developed to Adapt to Human Exercise?” [Smithsonian]. • Cats, clearly:
Yesterday, I needed to say goodbye to a buddy. pic.twitter.com/E3sbk5LTKb
— Will 🦥 Menaker (@willmenaker) March 29, 2023
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