For individuals who like to observe, alert reader marym gives these hyperlinks to the oral arguments for Anderson in the present day on the Supreme Court docket:
Rick Hasen Live Blog of Oral Arguments in Trump Disqualification Case at Supreme Court (Refresh This Page Frequently for Updates), Election Legislation Weblog
Live Oral Argument Audio, Supreme Court docket of the US
Hat tip to alert reader GH for going by the amici briefs; maybe the questions will reveal which briefs the Justices (and their clerks) engaged with.
* * * “Part Three Is Not A ‘Political Query’” [Reason]. “We observe that within the Trump v. Anderson litigation, each the Colorado District and the Colorado Supreme Court docket discovered Part Three to be justiciable and Trump has not pressed a political query argument in his Supreme Court docket deserves briefs.” • This time Trump appears to have competent counsel, in order that’s that. A counter-argument Trump’s legal professionals haven’t made:
Professor Baude, addressing your just-written “political” argument, the Framers’ brilliantly-worded inclusion of a “Home Tranquility” goal should at all times be correctly understood as a “political” reference, in addition to a permission for politically-sensitive circumstances to be tried…
— Eastman (@EffEastman) February 7, 2024
“The Solely Method Trump Stays on the Poll Is that if the Supreme Court docket Rejects the Structure” [John Nichols, The Nation]. • Nichols makes the drained argument that figuring out if a candidate is an insurrectionist is so simple as figuring out their age. And by drained, I imply deeply bogus to anyone not taking The Nation
Petri DishCruise. To repeat: Revolt is a criminal offense underneath 18 U.S. Code § 2383.” If figuring out whether or not Trump was an insurrectionist had been lower and dried, Trump would have been charged with it. Why didn’t Jack Smith or anyone else do this? As a result of they checked out Trump’s fingers and thought they weren’t all that brief? As a result of they didn’t suppose they may win the case, that’s why. And if Nichols thinks disqualifying a candidate on any customary much less than “past an inexpensive doubt” is a recipe for both “set up[ing] justice” or “insur[ing] home tranquility” (United States Constitution, Preamble), I’ve acquired a bridge I’d wish to promote you. Musical interlude.“‘Judged by historical past’: Trump’s 14th Modification struggle at Supreme Court docket poses an infinite check for John Roberts” [CNN]. “For any chief justice, the perfect end result is normally one which yields a unanimous vote – or one thing near it. On the subject of the election case, many consultants imagine his best path can be a slim resolution during which Trump stays on the poll and the Supreme Court docket avoids sweeping conclusions about Trump’s actions. ‘It will be significantly better if it was unanimous and it didn’t appear to be a partisan resolution,’ stated Tom Ginsburg, a professor on the College of Chicago Legislation Faculty and co-author of a 2018 e-book about the specter of democratic decay. ‘The problem for Roberts is to take a jurisprudential route that can get 9 votes.’ That will contain in search of authorized “off ramps” that settle the case in a restricted means. The court docket, as an illustration, may rule that the rebellion ban doesn’t apply to presidents or that it requires a legislation from Congress to be enforced.
“6 key questions in Supreme Court docket struggle over Trump’s poll eligibility” [Politico]. “The trial court docket decide who heard proof within the Colorado case concluded that the occasions did quantity to an rebellion — and simply so. Larger courts are normally extremely deferential to that kind of fact-finding. About 1,300 prison circumstances have been filed over the occasions of Jan. 6. Nobody has been charged with committing the precise crime of rebellion, although about 14 have been charged with or pleaded responsible to a associated cost of seditious conspiracy. Notably, when the Justice Division, by particular counsel Jack Smith, introduced a prison case towards Trump final August over his efforts to subvert the 2020 election, there was additionally no rebellion cost.” • Odd, eh?
“Supreme Court docket may toss Trump eligibility dispute to Congress” [Roll Call]. “Trump and Republican members of Congress have argued in briefs that the 14th Modification requires Congress to approve ‘implementing laws’ to authorize enforcement of Part 3. The Colorado Republican Social gathering additionally has backed that argument that the so-called rebellion clause is ‘not self-executing,’ which signifies that Congress should move a legislation to allow people to sue underneath the supply. A Supreme Court docket resolution that sided with that argument would go away it to Congress to move such a invoice earlier than anybody — Trump in addition to different candidates in future elections — might be barred from holding workplace underneath the 14th Modification. The political realities on Capitol Hill make that exceedingly unlikely throughout this presidential marketing campaign, however the query would stay open going ahead.” • There are various extra entertaining situations within the article, however that one appears the more than likely.
“The Supreme Court docket’s Colorado Trump Check” [Wall Street Journal]. The case for Trump, concluding: “One of the best course for the nation can be for the Justices to settle this case on the slim authorized points, and to not enter the political struggle over whether or not Jan. 6 was an rebellion.” Baude and Paulsen dispute this, as they have to. And the Trump workforce doesn’t make the argument that rebellion is a political query. However extra: “The Justices don’t have to go there in the event that they discover that Part 3 doesn’t cowl the President. A 9-0 resolution would ship a unified message to the nation that Colorado is fallacious on the legislation.” • It will, however a lot is determined by the character of the choice. My guess is that there can be a number of yammering about court-packing.
* * * “One other Trump case on the Supreme Court docket? His argument for immunity might be a tricky promote” [USA Today]. “A 3-judge panel of the D.C. Circuit Court docket of Appeals on Tuesday forcefully rejected Trump’s declare of immunity from prosecution for the potential crimes tied to making an attempt to remain in workplace regardless of shedding the election…. U.S. District Decide Tanya Chutkan had scheduled Trump’s trial for March 4, however suspended pre-trial deadlines and ultimately postponed the trial date as Trump’s attraction unfolded. The appeals court docket said the suspension will expire Monday except Trump asks the Supreme Court docket to maintain it in place by then. At that time, will probably be as much as the excessive court docket whether or not to maintain the case on maintain whereas it decides whether or not to listen to the case. ‘It places the Supreme Court docket within the sizzling seat, offers Trump solely six days to write down this petition on an emergency foundation, and it’s going to be probably the most vital issues that the Supreme Court docket does in relation to the 2024 election,’ stated Rick Hasen, a professor and election legislation skilled on the College of California, Irvine Faculty of Legislation.” • I want I may 100% reject Trump’s immunity declare. Nonetheless, in some Third World nations, legal guidelines are written with a view towards later entrapping political enemies (I suppose the Radical Republicans did one thing like that to Andrew Johnson with the “Tenure of Workplace Act”). I might veiew this chance as extraordinarily distant, had been it not for the truth that the New York legislation that enabled E. Jean Carroll to sue him, which was handed by a Democrat legislature and signed by a Democrat governor, appeared tailor-made to allow her to take action (perilously near a invoice of attainder). In nations the place the rule of legislation is an actual factor, Presidential immunity is not sensible in any respect. In nations had been lawfare is the rule, possibly it does.
“Jurors, Not Voters, Might Give Biden a Second Time period” [By Ron Faucheu, CNN]. FIling this right here, and never 2024. “The latest Bloomberg/Morning Seek the advice of ballot of seven important swing states reveals Trump receiving 48% of the mixed vote and Biden getting 42%. The survey additionally finds that if Trump is convicted of a criminal offense, 18% of his personal voters in these key states can be unwilling, very or considerably, to stay with him. That will look like a small quantity, however in electoral phrases, it might be decisive: If Trump loses 18% of his present vote in swing states, he drops from 48% to a bit of over 39% – a quantity low sufficient for Biden, at 42%, to overhaul him. You ask: If Trump loses votes based mostly on a responsible verdict, the place would these voters go? Biden wouldn’t get many, if any. A portion may keep house and never vote, which hurts Republican candidates down poll. The largest chunk of disaffected Trump voters would probably transfer to impartial candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., who Republicans regard favorably and broadly view as a protest automobile. Bloomberg/Morning Seek the advice of polling finds that fifty% of Trump’s present supporters in key states have constructive emotions towards Kennedy, with far fewer holding destructive views. This situation, removed from sure however nonetheless attainable, would give Kennedy an opportunity to run up his vote complete greater than present polls point out. However so long as the race is seen as a aggressive Trump-Biden contest, any Trump losses finally assist Biden win.” • “The Supreme Court docket leads the election returns….”
“Justice Jackson has weighed in on extra authorized questions of Jan. 6 rioting than some other Supreme Court docket member” [CNN]. “Then-Decide Jackson finally handed the rioter circumstances she was assigned off to different judges when she left the [DC] district court docket after President Joe Biden elevated her to the DC Circuit Court docket of Appeals. However her statements from the interval instantly following the assault supply a sign of how she may method the riot within the Trump poll case. ‘Most of the attendees of this rally had been lured to the Capitol Constructing itself,’ she stated at a March 2021 listening to for Texas rioter Christopher Grider (he was later convicted). ‘They participated in what many students and commentators have characterised as an armed rebellion … If there’s a extra severe offense when it comes to who we’re as a society and the democratic order that’s on the core of our constitutional scheme, I don’t know what’s.’”
* * * “A Authorized Outsider, an Offbeat Principle and the Destiny of the 2024 Election” [New York Times]. “On this planet of American authorized scholarship, Seth Barrett Tillman is an outsider in additional methods than one. An affiliate professor at a college in Eire, he has put ahead uncommon interpretations of the which means of the U.S. Structure that for years have largely gone ignored — if not outright dismissed as crackpot. However at 60, Professor Tillman is having fun with some stage of vindication. When the U.S. Supreme Court docket considers on Thursday whether or not former President Donald J. Trump is barred from Colorado’s main poll, a seemingly counterintuitive principle that Professor Tillman has championed for more than 15 years will take heart stage and will form the presidential election. The Structure makes use of varied phrases to check with authorities officers or workplaces. The standard view is that all of them share the identical which means. However by his account, every is distinct — and that, crucially for the case earlier than the court docket, the actual phrase ‘officer of the US’ refers solely to appointed positions, not the presidency.” • I just like the human curiosity tales, this dude, the 91-year-old woman, Graber, however I believe the elemental query is that this: Why did the Democrat fraction of the political class immediately and pervasively body the Capitol Hill riot as a quote-unquote “rebellion”? I don’t keep in mind the primary instance of this “classification battle,” however I wrote towards that attribute solely 16 days after January 6, “The Organizational Capacity and Behavioral Characteristics of the Capitol Rioters (First Cut)“, concluding:
So, now that we’ve seemed on the organizational capability of the rioters (poor) and behavioral traits (inexplicable to me, which doesn’t imply inexplicable), what once more was the Capitol Seizure? Provided that the question-and-answer “What’s the plan? I don’t know” appears correct, “riot” appears much more acceptable than “rebellion,” not to mention “coup.”
Such “education habits” is very attribute of the PMC, even moreso within the political class, however the impetus is unknown. Maybe the Election Integrity Project’s wargame?
Biden Administration
“A State of the Union for the Center Class” [William Galston, Wall Street Journal]. “This brings me to what for you have to be essentially the most bitter capsule: Operating in your report most likely gained’t be sufficient to win. Whereas your checklist of legislative accomplishments is lengthy, lots of the results gained’t be obvious till effectively after the election, and what voters see now hasn’t persuaded them that you just benefit a second time period. This cussed reality results in my core recommendation: Your State of the Union tackle ought to focus totally on the long run. Listed below are two examples of what you’ll be able to supply. First, you must underscore your dedication to assault excessive costs head-on. You’ve made a great begin by capping the price of insulin, enabling Medicare to barter drug costs, and going after junk charges. However as I’ve argued in earlier columns, you must increase the battle to incorporate persistently excessive meals costs, which mirror (amongst different components) oligopolies in key meals sectors equivalent to meat and poultry and choices by main meals corporations to take care of their expanded revenue margins lengthy after pandemic disruptions disappeared. Your administration has had little to say about excessive housing prices, which stop many {couples} with younger kids from shopping for their first houses. Governors across the nation are starting to handle this downside, and you must too… Second: Roughly 6 in 10 voters haven’t accomplished a four-year faculty diploma and gained’t ever achieve this. You must supply them a reputable plan to reinforce their incomes and social mobility. A school diploma represents one path to the center class, however, as you have got rightly insisted, it shouldn’t be the one one.” • Do it, or Trump will?
2024
Lower than a yr to go!
* * * Trump(R): “Inside Donald Trump’s Unimaginable Money Crunch” [Daily Beast]. “Donald Trump is simply days away from getting slammed with a court docket judgment that might be value a whole lot of thousands and thousands of {dollars} as a punishment for his many years of financial institution fraud with the Trump Group. And two little-known New York legal guidelines may depart Trump scrambling for money: a requirement that he instantly entrance the cash to attraction the choice, and a sky-high state rate of interest. Throughout a deposition with the New York Lawyer Common in April 2023, Trump boasted that he had $400 million in money, bragging about the way it’s ‘lots for a developer.’ However even when that had been true, it probably gained’t be sufficient to concurrently cowl final month’s $83 million verdict at his rape defamation trial—which he wants to right away put aside to attraction that case—and the $370 million demanded by the AG for his incessant lying to banks. Whereas the decide deciding the financial institution fraud case hasn’t provide you with a ultimate determine that Trump owes, each indication is that will probably be into the a whole lot of thousands and thousands. A message from the judge on Tuesday truly steered it might be much more than what the New York AG is searching for. Trump’s sudden money calls for are exacerbated by a quirk in New York legislation. Not solely would the judgment get routinely inflated by an unusually excessive rate of interest of 9 %, however Trump would wish to provide the court docket the enlarged complete—plus an additional 10 to twenty %—in an effort to attraction and have one other day in court docket. And it will all be due by mid-March.”
* * * Biden (D): “Biden categorized doc probe ends with out fees” [Politico]. “Whatever the findings of Hur’s probe, prison fees for Biden had been unlikely due to longstanding Justice Division authorized opinions successfully precluding fees towards a sitting president.” • Wait. Don’t all of the arguments for indicting a President after they’re out of workplace apply for when they’re in workplace? Rule of Legislation, and so forth?
Biden (D): “Biden claims German chief who died in 2017 attended 2021 G7 assembly – as he mixes up useless European chief in SAME story for second time in a WEEK” [Daily Mail]. “President Joe Biden has once more claimed he was talking with a useless dignitary on the 2021 G7 Summit – marking the second time in per week the president has appeared to reference assembly a deceased chief. The 81-year-old president, talking in Las Vegas Monday, advised an anecdote about attending the summit in England in June 2021, the place he referenced chatting with French President Francois Mitterrand, who died in 1996, as an alternative of present chief Emmanuel Macron.”
Williamson (D): “Longshot Biden challenger Marianne Williamson drops out of race: ‘A lot to be pleased about’” [FOX]. “Longshot Democratic presidential candidate Marianne Williamson has suspended her presidential marketing campaign. Williamson introduced that she is going to now not be pursuing the White Home in 2024 in a video posted to X, previously Twitter, Wednesday evening. ‘I learn a quote the opposite day that stated that sunsets are proof that endings will be stunning too, and so in the present day, although it’s time to droop my marketing campaign for the presidency, I do wish to see the sweetness and I would like all of you who so extremely supported me on this journey – as donors, as supporters, as workforce and as volunteers – to see the sweetness too,’ she opened the video saying.”
* * * “Democrats sound alarm, take motion towards Biden’s third-party threats” [WaPo]. On RFK Jr. on the upcoming Libertarian convention in CA: “I get the sensation that he [Junior] needs to really feel it [the ballot line] out,’ stated Angela McArdle, the chair of the Libertarian Nationwide Committee, which has welcomed the eye. ‘We love the brave stance he took towards lockdowns and mandates, however overseas coverage is the most important hurdle that he has to beat.’”
The five-way (from 270toWin):
I’ll have to trace this; the factor to observe for is a gradual improve in RFK Jr’s share.
Attention-grabbing chart on media mentions (from Brookings):
RFK Jr. appears low.
* * * “Lawmakers see blue-collar voters as key in Biden-Trump rematch” [Roll Call]. “Working-class voters of in the present day are like these of the twentieth century in that many lack a university diploma. However they’re completely different as a result of many are now not working in unionized manufacturing jobs, which have declined considerably in latest many years. These days, the broad time period covers employees in industries like retail, private companies, well being care, meals companies and comparable sectors. And as of late, many are usually not members of a labor union — however they do have a political choice. ‘Whereas working class voters harbor reservations about each political events, they align extra with Republicans than with Democrats on many of the issues that concern them,’ in accordance with the Brookings Establishment’s William Galston, a former Clinton White Home aide. In New Hampshire’s GOP main, Trump dominated amongst voters with no faculty diploma, in accordance with knowledge compiled by The New York Occasions. As a result of purpose to in the future begin their very own enterprise, hurdles like allowing and rules imply ‘they’re much less instinctively pro-government than had been members of the working class within the lengthy period of Democratic dominance that stretched from the Thirties by the Sixties,’ Galston added.” • I believe “many” is doing a number of work, there. Onerous to think about constructions employees whinging about hard-hat rules, for instance. Or railworkers wanting much less regulation? I don’t suppose so.
* * *
Realignment and Legitimacy
“These Are Folks” [Atrios, Eschaton]. “Certainly one of my agency perception is that our politics can be tremendously improved by shutting off cable information in Congressional workplaces. This was apparent to me 20 years or so in the past after I first paid a go to to a few of these workplaces. Issues like ‘the border disaster’ are a disaster as a result of they’re on teevee, not due to something actual, and whereas I don’t suppose my private politics are universally common, I don’t suppose permitting your self to be led round by the worst individuals on the earth (conservatives, shitty political journalists, and the democratic mercenary guide class) is the sensible play, both.” • Atrios left the spooks off his checklist (and the NGOs (and the Censorship Industrial Advanced))
“A neighborhood redistricting battle in a New York Metropolis suburb could result in a nationwide struggle” [NPR]. “In Nassau County, voters of coloration and white voters are likely to desire completely different candidates. And the variety of individuals figuring out as white and never Hispanic has dropped greater than 11% over the previous decade, as Black, Latino and Asian American residents now make up greater than a 3rd of eligible voters. However on the present map for the county legislature, these voters of coloration make up nearly all of eligible voters in solely 4 out of 19 districts, or lower than 1 / 4. The map’s challengers argue there ought to be six such districts. ‘The white voice at all times appears to overpower our voices. And I really feel like if we’re not represented as entire, the consultant will go to that highly effective white voice earlier than they take heed to our issues,’ says Jordan-Awalom, who needs to maintain her village united in a single voting district. ‘We have now had the identical struggle for thus lengthy, so clearly we’re not being heard. And I believe it has to alter.’ That change, she hopes, will come by an unprecedented means of immediately difficult a neighborhood voting map underneath a state voting rights act — an rising instrument that advocates hope will help fortify the rights of voters of coloration as opponents proceed to chip away at protections towards racial discrimination underneath the federal Voting Rights Act of 1965.”
#COVID19
“I’m in earnest — I cannot equivocate — I cannot excuse — I cannot retreat a single inch — AND I WILL BE HEARD.” –William Lloyd Garrison
Assets, United States (Nationwide): Transmission (CDC); Wastewater (CDC, Biobot; contains many counties; Wastewater Scan, contains drilldown by zip); Variants (CDC; Walgreens); “Iowa COVID-19 Tracker” (in IA, however nationwide knowledge). “Infection Control, Emergency Management, Safety, and General Thoughts” (particularly on hospitalization by metropolis).
Lambert right here: Readers, thanks for the collective effort. To replace any entry, do be at liberty to contact me on the tackle given with the vegetation. Please put “COVID” within the topic line. Thanks!
Assets, United States (Native): AK (dashboard); AL (dashboard); AR (dashboard); AZ (dashboard); CA (dashboard; Marin, dashboard; Stanford, wastewater; Oakland, wastewater); CO (dashboard; wastewater); CT (dashboard); DE (dashboard); FL (wastewater); GA (wastewater); HI (dashboard); IA (wastewater reports); ID (dashboard, Boise; dashboard, wastewater, Central Idaho; wastewater, Coeur d’Alene; dashboard, Spokane County); IL (wastewater); IN (dashboard); KS (dashboard; wastewater, Lawrence); KY (dashboard, Louisville); LA (dashboard); MA (wastewater); MD (dashboard); ME (dashboard); MI (wastewater; wastewater); MN (dashboard); MO (wastewater); MS (dashboard); MT (dashboard); NC (dashboard); ND (dashboard; wastewater); NE (dashboard); NH (wastewater); NJ (dashboard); NM (dashboard); NV (dashboard; wastewater, Southern NV); NY (dashboard); OH (dashboard); OK (dashboard); OR (dashboard); PA (dashboard); RI (dashboard); SC (dashboard); SD (dashboard); TN (dashboard); TX (dashboard); UT (wastewater); VA (dashboard); VT (dashboard); WA (dashboard; dashboard); WI (wastewater); WV (wastewater); WY (wastewater).
Assets, Canada (Nationwide): Wastewater (Government of Canada).
Assets, Canada (Provincial): ON (wastewater); QC (les eaux usées); BC (wastewater); BC, Vancouver (wastewater).
Hat tricks to useful readers: Alexis, anon (2), Art_DogCT, B24S, CanCyn, ChiGal, Chuck L, Festoonic, FM, FreeMarketApologist (4), Gumbo, hop2it, JB, JEHR, JF, JL Joe, John, JM (10), JustAnotherVolunteer, JW, KatieBird, LL, Michael King, KF, LaRuse, mrsyk, MT, MT_Wild, otisyves, Petal (6), RK (2), RL, RM, Rod, sq. coats (11), tennesseewaltzer, Tom B., Utah, Bob White (3).
Keep secure on the market!
Morbidity and Mortality
“Extra natural-cause mortality in US counties and its affiliation with reported COVID-19 deaths” [PNAS]. “Within the current research, we estimated that roughly 1.2 million extra natural-cause deaths occurred in US counties through the first 30 mo of the pandemic. Almost 163,000 of those extra natural-cause deaths weren’t reported to COVID-19. The relative hole between extra natural-cause mortality and reported COVID-19 mortality was largest in nonmetropolitan counties, the West, and the South. Opposite to prior literature which indicated that these gaps had been largely restricted to the early months of the pandemic, we discovered almost as many extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes within the pandemic’s second yr as the primary yr… Within the current research, we examined temporal correlations between reported COVID-19 deaths and extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes. In almost all Census divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan classes, we discovered that will increase in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with will increase in extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes in the identical or prior month (constructive correlation at a lag of 0 and/or −1 mo). In lots of Census Divisions and metropolitan–nonmetropolitan, we additionally noticed that will increase in reported COVID-19 deaths correlated with decreases in extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes… The temporal correlations we noticed recommend that many extra deaths reported to non-COVID-19 pure causes through the first 30 mo of the pandemic in the US had been unrecognized COVID-19 deaths. Neighborhood-level consciousness of COVID-19 mortality danger modified markedly with native peaks in reported COVID-19 deaths in ways in which affected testing and surveillance, regardless of excessive consciousness of the pandemic total.” • Useful map:
Apparently, the problematic areas aren’t almost as concentrated within the former Confederacy as they so typically are, in circumstances like this,
TABLE 1: Day by day Covid Charts
LEGEND
1) ★ for charts new in the present day; all others are usually not up to date.
2) For a full-size/full-resolution picture, Command-click (MacOS) or right-click (Home windows) on the chart thumbnail and “open picture in new tab.”
NOTES
[1] Sure, up, however we’ll wish to wait till subsequent week to see if there are backward revisions. I’d be extra comfy if some positivity figures had been up, too, or the ER (UPDATE: It’s not). Verily knowledge, FWIW, additionally suggests a rise:
[2] Biobot knowledge suggests an increase within the Northeast. MRWA knowledge doesn’t recommend that:
I additionally tried Verily’s regional knowledge and CDC’s mapm however I wasn’t assured I used to be seeing a sign in both.
[3] “As of Might 11, genomic surveillance knowledge can be reported biweekly, based mostly on the supply of constructive check specimens.” “Biweeekly: 1. occurring each two weeks. 2. occurring twice per week; semiweekly.” Appears like CDC has chosen sense #1. In essence, they’re telling us variants are nothing to fret about. Time will inform.
[4] Doesn’t assist Biobot knowledge. “Charts and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates Wednesday by 8am. For the previous yr, utilizing a rolling 52-week interval.” So not all the pandemic, FFS (the implicit message right here being that Covid is “identical to the flu,” which is why the seasonal “rolling 52-week interval” is suitable for eachMR SUBLIMINAL I hate these individuals a lot. Discover additionally that this chart reveals, at the very least for its time interval, that Covid is not seasonal, although CDC is making an attempt to get us to imagine that it’s, presumably to allow them to piggyback on the present institutional equipment for injections. And naturally, we’re not even moving into the standard of the wastewater websites that we now have as a proxy for Covid an infection total.
[5] Lower for town now not aligns with wastewater knowledge (if certainly Biobot’s spike is actual).
[6] Nonetheless down “Maps, charts, and knowledge supplied by CDC, updates weekly for the earlier MMWR week (Sunday-Saturday) on Thursdays (Deaths, Emergency Division Visits, Check Positivity) and weekly the next Mondays (Hospitalizations) by 8 pm ET†”.
[7] It will be fascinating to survey this inhabitants usually; these are individuals who, regardless of a tsunami of official propaganda and large peer strain, went and acquired examined anyhow.
[8] Lambert right here: Proportion and absolute numbers down.
[9] Up, albeit within the rear view mirror.
Stats Watch
“United States Preliminary Jobless Claims” [Trading Economics]. “The variety of individuals claiming unemployment advantages within the US fell by 9,000 to 218,000 from the prior week’s upwardly revised worth within the February 2nd report, barely beneath estimates of 220,000 however remaining firmly above the typical from the final two months. Within the meantime, persevering with claims eased by 23,000 to 1,871,000 within the final week of January. Regardless of remaining firmly above the typical from the final two months, the figures proceed to level to a slowing albeit sturdy labor market.”
Tech: “FCC Makes AI-Generated Voices in Robocalls Unlawful” [FCC]. “The FCC introduced the unanimous adoption of a Declaratory Ruling that acknowledges calls made with AI-generated voices are “synthetic” underneath the Phone Client Safety Act (TCPA).”
In the present day’s Concern & Greed Index: 76 Greed (earlier shut: 75 Greed) [CNN]. One week in the past: 62 (Excessive Greed). (0 is Excessive Concern; 100 is Excessive Greed). Final up to date Feb 8 at 1:33:37 PM ET.
The Conservatory
“Carmina Burana” [Michael Smith, Crying in the Wilderness]. Program notes: “Carmina has been common for a very long time, and all people has heard at the very least a few of it. It’s straightforward to love. To say that it’s accessible, nevertheless, is to not say that it’s trivial. The mediaeval origin of the texts clearly steered some mediaeval compositional strategies – organum and fauxbourdon, and many parallel octaves and fourths and fifths. Melodic traces typically recall liturgical chant. The harmonic texture will be shaggy, however it’s by no means arbitrary, and the voice-leading is at all times logical, although not at all times clean. However a sure edgy angularity appears to have been what Orff was going for. The insistent rhythm isn’t monotonous, and Orff makes positive to go away a number of bumps within the highway, simply to maintain us all on our toes. He has his personal idiosyncratic means of notating time signatures, and he switches a great deal amongst measures of three beats, and 4 beats, and 5 and 6 beats. Someway he stitches these collectively in a means that appears cheap and discursive relatively than punitive (and there are different composers who fall into the latter class). Specifically, the growth of the measure in Carmina typically appears to be a means of lending emphasis to some portion of the textual content.” • I noticed the Philadelphia Orchestra play Carmina, again within the day, It was definitely rousing! What the heck, it’s solely an hour lengthy:
Don’t strive listening throughout your afternoon nap, although!
Guillotine Watch
“Decabillionaire Dynasties: These Are The Richest Households In America” [Forbes]. “At a time when markets and asset values are hovering, and the variety of billionaires appears to multiply by the day, Forbes determined to up the ante and rank solely these households value $10 billion or extra. Forty-five multigenerational households made the lower. Altogether they’re value a mixed $1.3 trillion. By comparability, simply 36 households had been value $10 billion or extra in 2020, the final time Forbes counted up the fortunes of America’s richest households. These and are based mostly out of hometowns starting from Louisville, Kentucky to Wichita, Kansas to Racine, Wisconsin. However there are specific locations the place extra of them will be discovered. New York Metropolis, house to the descendants of make-up mogul Estée Lauder (d. 2004) and publishing legend William Randolph Hearst (d. 1951) in addition to the Rockefellers, has essentially the most with seven. Chicago (4 households) and Atlanta (three households) spherical out the highest three.” Clans, like I’ve stated. Extra: “Not all households have fared as effectively. 4 clans who had been value greater than $10 billion in 2020 have since misplaced their decabillionaire standing. Amongst them: Purdue Pharma’s Sackler household (estimated internet value: $5.2 billion), whose supply to settle all OxyContin-related civil claims towards them for $6 billion has been appealed to the Supreme Court docket. The descendants of New York actual property moguls Sol Goldman (d. 1987) and his brother Irving Goldman (d. 1995) additionally dropped $7.7 billion to an estimated $5.5 billion fortune, resulting from considerably decrease property valuations revealed as a part of an intrafamily authorized dispute amongst Sol’s kids.”
Class Warfare
Class consciousness:
Firefighters and MBA college students had been requested how they’d really feel in the event that they purchased a brand new automobile, confirmed their good friend, and subsequent day the good friend buys the identical sort of automobile
% who report they’d really feel:
Upset
Firefighters: 3%
MBAs: 47%Betrayed
Firefighters: 13%
MBAs: 47% https://t.co/nbiuOgLlfd pic.twitter.com/zirExILK0u— Rob Henderson (@robkhenderson) February 7, 2024
Jogs my memory of this basic clip:
Information of the Wired
“My experiment in phonelessness was a failure. It additionally modified my life” [Guardian]. ” I’m presently on my cellphone for 90 minutes a day. 5 of these are spent on Instagram. I now not really feel addicted.” Oh. Extra: “One other gradual burn has been the rise in time spent studying. I believe it’s additionally the explanation I now not lose entire days on Instagram. Opening any social media apps now, they strike me as … foolish. Perhaps focus actually is a muscle – that hungers to carry heavier issues as you construct it. In fact, loads of individuals take pleasure in each. This isn’t to say all social media content material is shallow and pointless! (Despite the fact that I do suppose that!)” And: “For any capitalism followers, I have to observe that my freelance earnings has risen, and I’m extra productive. I don’t discover it useful to vilify tech corporations a lot, and now not personify my cellphone. The shiny, infinite-content machine will not be a muse, chilly lover or nemesis. It’s a instrument. Greater than anything, it’s a barometer of my discontent. After I discover that weight in my hand, the pull towards distraction and escape, I attempt to diagnose what’s actually occurring with me.”
Contact data for vegetation: Readers, be at liberty to contact me at lambert [UNDERSCORE] strether [DOT] corrente [AT] yahoo [DOT] com, to (a) learn how to ship me a examine if you’re allergic to PayPal and (b) to learn how to ship me photographs of vegetation. Greens are wonderful! Fungi, lichen, and coral are deemed to be honorary vegetation! In order for you your deal with to seem as a credit score, please place it at the beginning of your mail in parentheses: (thus). In any other case, I’ll anonymize through the use of your initials. See the earlier Water Cooler (with plant) here. From Carla:
Carla writes: “Some massive vegetation silhouetted in a January dawn — uncommon in Cleveland! (The winter dawn, not the timber!)” Wow!!
Readers: Water Cooler is a standalone entity not coated by the annual NC fundraiser. So in case you see a hyperlink you particularly like, or an merchandise you wouldn’t see wherever else, please don’t hesitate to precise your appreciation in tangible kind. Keep in mind, a tip jar is for tipping! Common constructive suggestions each makes me really feel good and lets me know I’m heading in the right direction with protection. After I get no donations for 5 or ten days I get anxious. Extra tangibly, a continuing trickle of donations helps me with bills, and I consider that trickle when setting fundraising targets:
Right here is the display screen that can seem, which I’ve helpfully annotated:
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